This is The Prophecy. The Prophecy is much more than seeing into the future. For The Prophecy sees without the limits of time. For The Prophecy sees what is, what was, and what always shall be.
Human rights and national security lawyer Irina Tsukerman explained that while these exercises are worrying, she believes the real threat lies in an accidental escalation rather than a deliberate one.
“The biggest issue is that Russia isn’t a responsible actor, they probably don’t have their nuclear weapons in the best condition,” Tsukerman told Daily Express US. “Something may accidentally escalate, they could mishandle nuclear weapons and that could be a global disaster.”
Russia is currently in the process of modernizing its nuclear arsenal to ensure it remains effective in today’s world, with President Putin recently stating that about 95 percent of Russia’s strategic nuclear systems have been upgraded to newer models. While there have been rumours suggesting a significant increase in Russia’s stockpile of smaller nuclear weapons, there isn’t much concrete evidence to support this claim, according to the Federation of American Scientists (FAD).
Instead, Russia is primarily focusing on replacing its older Soviet-era missiles with newer ones, although they’re not necessarily adding a large number of new missiles to their arsenal. This modernization effort aims to maintain Russia’s nuclear deterrence capabilities without drastically altering its overall nuclear strategy.
Additionally, Putin’s many veiled threats to use nuclear power, while they should be taken seriously, may also simply be a strategic game of scare tactics.
“Nuclear weapons are a trigger warning to Western powers, and they’re triggering political pressure”, Tsukerman said. “This is about fear mongering, not actions, so that the West will stop helping Ukraine.
“Russia and its allies are calculating strategy, and seeing that threats are quite powerful. I think Russia would think long and hard before actually doing something like that. It’s an ideological warfare […].”
“Countries like Moldova, the Baltic states, and Poland, would be extremely vulnerable to such attacks because of their strategic positioning and their unpreparedness. For example, Poland has recently bought quite new and modern weapons, but they haven’t received them yet, which makes them vulnerable.”
Poland has recently stated that they would deploy nuclear forces on the country’s borders if needed, as Belarusian troops have moved to their borders.
Unconfirmed quake or seismic-like event reported: 12 mi northwest of New York City, New York, United States, 2 minutes ago
We are receiving unverified early reports of ground shaking possibly caused by seismic activity in or near New York City, New York, USA on 11 May 2024 (GMT) at approximately 18:57 GMT. There are no details yet on the magnitude or depth of this possible quake. If confirmed, we can expect more accurate data to emerge in the next few minutes. The location, magnitude and time mentioned are indicative, based on our best-fit seismic model. They are temporary until our AllQuakes monitoring service receives more exact scientific data from a national or international seismological agency. Check back here shortly and stay safe.
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Earthquake data: Date & time: May 11, 2024 02:57 pm (GMT -4) local time (11 May 2024 18:57 GMT) Magnitude: unspecified Depth: unspecified Epicenter latitude / longitude: 40.86°N / 74.11°W (New York, United States) Primary data source: VolcanoDiscovery
An earthquake of magnitude 5.2 occurred only 12 minutes ago 92 km northeast of Santo, Vanuatu, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) reported. …Read all
Just 12 minutes ago, a 3.1-magnitude earthquake struck near Argostoli, Kefallonia, Ionian Islands, Greece. The tremor was recorded in the afternoon on Saturday, May 11th, 2024, at 4:21 pm local time, at a very shallow depth of 5 km below the surface.
An Israeli tank moves near the Israeli-Gaza border, as seen from southern Israel, Sunday, May 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov)Read More
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Family of Israeli solider Sergeant Yosef Dassa mourn in grief during his funeral in Kiryat Ata, Israel, Sunday, May 12, 2024. Dassa ,19, was killed during Israel’s ground operation in the Gaza Strip, where the Israeli army has been battling Palestinian militants in the war ignited by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack into Israel. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)Read More
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Demonstrators chant slogans during a protest outside the U.S. consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, Sunday, May 12, 2024, to show solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing war in Gaza. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)Read More
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Israeli tanks move near the Israeli-Gaza border, as seen from southern Israel, Sunday, May 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov)Read More
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Family of Israeli solider Sergeant Yosef Dassa mourn in grief over his casket during his funeral in Kiryat Ata, Israel, Sunday, May 12, 2024. Dassa ,19, was killed during Israel’s ground operation in the Gaza Strip, where the Israeli army has been battling Palestinian militants in the war ignited by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack into Israel. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)Read More
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Israeli soldiers carry the casket of Sergeant Yosef Dassa during his funeral in Kiryat Ata, Israel, Sunday, May 12, 2024. Dassa ,19, was killed during Israel’s ground operation in the Gaza Strip, where the Israeli army has been battling Palestinian militants in the war ignited by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack into Israel. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)Read More
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Family of Israeli solider Sergeant Yosef Dassa mourn in grief during his funeral in Kiryat Ata, Israel, Sunday, May 12, 2024. Dassa ,19, was killed during Israel’s ground operation in the Gaza Strip, where the Israeli army has been battling Palestinian militants in the war ignited by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack into Israel. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)
Rafah is considered the last refuge in Gaza for more than a million civilians as well as Hamas’ last stronghold. Some 300,000 people have fled the city following evacuation orders from Israel, which says it must invade to dismantle Hamas and return scores of hostages taken in the Oct. 7 attack against Israel that sparked the war.
“A full-scale offensive on Rafah cannot take place,” United Nations human rights chief Volker Turk said in a statement, adding he cannot see how it can be reconciled with international humanitarian law.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated opposition to a major military assault on Rafah, and told CBS that Israel would “be left holding the bag on an enduring insurgency” without an exit from Gaza and postwar governance plan.
Internationally mediated talks over a cease-fire and hostage release appeared to be at a standstill.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a Memorial Day speech vowed to continue fighting until victory in memory of those killed in the war.
Netanyahu has rejected postwar plans proposed by the United States for the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, to govern Gaza with support from Arab and Muslim countries. Those plans depend on progress toward the creation of a Palestinian state, which Netanyahu’s government opposes.
Palestinians mourn relatives killed in the Israeli bombardments of the Gaza Strip in front of the morgue of the Al Aqsa Hospital in Deir al Balah, Gaza Strip, on Saturday, May 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)Palestinian medics treat a wounded man in the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip at Al Aqsa hospital in Deir al Balah, Gaza Strip, on Saturday, May 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Saher Alghorra)
The Oct. 7 attack killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took another 250 hostage. Militants still hold about 100 captives and the remains of more than 30.
Israel’s air, land and sea offensive has killed more than 35,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants in its figures. Israel says it has killed over 13,000 militants, without providing evidence.
Residents said Israeli warplanes and artillery struck across the camp and the Zeitoun area east of Gaza City, where troops have battled militants for over a week. They have called on tens of thousands of people to relocate to nearby areas.
“It was a very difficult night,” said Abdel-Kareem Radwan, a 48-year-old from Jabaliya. He said they could hear intense and constant bombing since midday Saturday. “This is madness.”
Palestinians displaced by the Israeli air and ground offensive on the Gaza Strip arrive at a makeshift tent camp west of Rafah, Gaza, Friday, May 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
First responders with the Palestinian Civil Defense said they were unable to respond to multiple calls for help from both areas, as well as from Rafah.
Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the top Israeli military spokesman, said forces were also operating in the northern towns of Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun, which were heavily bombed in the war’s opening days.
The U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, the main provider of aid in Gaza, said 300,000 people have fled Rafah since the operation began there. Most are heading to the heavily damaged nearby city of Khan Younis or Mawasi, a coastal tent camp where some 450,000 people are already living in squalid conditions.
Israel has now evacuated the eastern third of Rafah, which had been sheltering some 1.3 million Palestinians, most of whom had fled fighting elsewhere. The U.N. has warned that a planned full-scale invasion would further cripple humanitarian operations and cause a surge in civilian deaths.
The main aid entry points near Rafah are already affected. Israeli troops have captured the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing, forcing it to shut down. Egypt has refused to coordinate with Israel on the delivery of aid though the crossing because of “the unacceptable Israeli escalation,” the state-owned Al Qahera News channel reported.
A senior Egyptian official told The Associated Press that Cairo has lodged protests with Israel, the United States and European governments, saying the offensive has put its decades-old peace treaty with Israel — a cornerstone of regional stability — at high risk. The official was not authorized to brief media and spoke on condition of anonymity.
U.S. President Joe Biden has said he won’t provide offensive weapons to Israel for Rafah, and his administration says there is “reasonable” evidence that Israel had breached international law protecting civilians.
Israel rejects those allegations, saying it tries to avoid harming civilians. It blames Hamas for the high toll because the militants fight in dense, residential areas.
In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where deadly violence has increased since the war began, the Palestinian Health Ministry said a man was shot dead by Israeli forces in Balata refugee camp in Nablus. The army said its forces responded with live fire after being shot at by militants in the camp.
11 May 04:29 UTC: First to report: VolcanoDiscovery after 12 minutes.
Earthquake details
Date & timeMay 11, 2024 04:17:44 UTC – 16 hours agoLocal timeSaturday, May 11, 2024, at 12:17 am(GMT -4)StatusdisregardedMagnitudeunknown (3?)Depth10 kmEpicenter40.7889°N / 73.1772°WNew York, United StatesSeismic antipode40.7889°S / 106.8229°EShakingIII Weak shaking near epicenterFelt1 reportPrimary data sourceVolcanoDiscovery (User-reported shaking)Weather at epicenterBroken Clouds 8.4°C (47 F), humidity: 85%, wind: 2 m/s (3 kts) from ENE
Nearby places
The closest larger town where the quake might have been felt is Brentwood, a town with 61,000 inhabitants in the United States, in 5.9 km (3.7 mi) distance west of the epicenter. People likely experienced weak shaking there. Several smaller towns and villages are located closer to the epicenter and might have experienced stronger shaking. In the capital of the United States, Washington, 391 km (243 mi) away from the epicenter, the earthquake could not be felt. The following table shows some of the places that might have been affected (or not) by the shaking
Russian President Vladimir Putin made a veiled threat to use nuclear weapons against Western states during a commemoration of Russia’s World War II victory in Moscow Thursday.
“Russia will do everything to prevent a global clash,” Putin said. “But at the same time, we will not allow anyone to threaten us.”
“Our strategic forces are always in a state of combat readiness,” the Russian leader added, referencing his country’s most powerful nuclear weapons. The comments came just days after Russia announced it would conduct military exercises to prepare for the use of “tactical” nuclear weapons, which are designed for attacks on soldiers rather than population centers.
The announcement set off alarm bells in Washington, which has sought to carefully avoid any escalation to a direct NATO-Russia war. The State Department called the move “reckless” but soothed some nerves by saying the U.S. did not anticipate any short-term use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Putin’s latest moves are nonetheless part of a notable increase in Russian belligerence toward the West this past week, which Moscow claims is a response to Western efforts to rush weapons to Ukraine.
The situation increasingly resembles an escalation spiral, an international relations term for when two sides inch closer to direct war through gradual moves aimed at deterring the other party. As the war has dragged on, hawkish elements in the West and Russia have each succeeded in pressing their leaders to take steps that were once viewed as likely to result in further escalation.
Fearing a potential Ukrainian defeat, western Europe and the U.S. have increasingly signaled that the proverbial gloves are off. Britain recently declared that it had no issue with Ukraine using British weapons to strike Russian territory. “Just as Russia is striking inside Ukraine, you can quite understand why Ukraine feels the need to make sure it’s defending itself,” British Foreign Minister David Cameron said last week.
And Cameron is right in a narrow, moral sense. But the practical wisdom of that greenlight is unclear given Russia’s predictable response, which was to threaten retaliation against U.K. military targets if any British weapons did indeed strike Russian territory.
Even if Britain had no intention of being dragged into the war, Russia’s threat took British views out of the picture entirely. It is now up to Ukraine — a country facing long odds in a desperate, defensive war — to decide whether it can stomach the risk of further escalation.
The U.S. is more attuned to the risks inherent to Britain’s approach. While Washington did quietly give Kyiv long-range missiles, the Biden administration also made clear that the weapons could only be used against targets inside of Ukrainian territory, a restriction aimed at threading the needle between Russia’s red lines and Ukraine’s needs.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been less careful. Macron responded to Ukraine’s battlefield struggles by suggesting that France could send its own troops into the fight, raising the specter of direct war between two nuclear-armed states.
In this case, Russia shot back at Macron by promising to attack any French troops that show up at the frontline. “If the French appear in the conflict zone, they will inevitably become targets for the Russian armed forces,” said a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry Wednesday.
From Russia’s perspective, all of these recent moves are likely about restoring deterrence. But that doesn’t make them any less terrifying to us in the West. And Russia feels the same when we respond to that fear with our own efforts to restore deterrence.
This should all serve as a reminder that the potential of a broader Russia-NATO war never went away. We’ve simply gotten used to living in a time of great danger. In practice, the chance of a cataclysmic mistake is growing more and more likely by the day.
In other diplomatic news:
— Following a meeting with Macron Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for an international truce during the Olympic Games this summer, according to Politico. Macron thanked Xi for signing onto his idea of an Olympic truce and hinted that the pause could provide an opening to push for peace talks in Ukraine. “Maybe this could be an opportunity to work toward a sustainable resolution [of conflicts] in the full respect of international law,” the French leader said. Xi will have a chance to pitch the idea to Putin directly later this month when the Russian leader is scheduled to visit China.
— The only way to end the Ukraine war is through a temporary truce followed by peace talks, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said Monday, according to Reuters. Crosetto brushed off the idea that Putin hasn’t actually shown a desire to negotiate, saying “that is a good reason for us to try harder.” “We mustn’t give up any possible path of diplomacy, however narrow,” he argued, adding that Western sanctions and weapons had failed to deliver a decisive battlefield victory.
— Britain moved to expelRussia’s defense attache in London over allegations that the officer was using his military post for spying, according to AP News. The announcement came alongside new restrictions on diplomatic visas for future Russian envoys. Russia promised to respond “in kind.”
— Russian authorities arrested an American soldier in Vladivostok on charges of theft in early May, according to the New York Times. While U.S. officials have not formally designated the soldier as wrongfully detained, the arrest led to speculation that Russia is seeking further bargaining chips for prisoner swaps with the United States.
U.S. State Department news:
In a Wednesday press conference, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller strongly discouraged Americans from traveling to Russia given the risk of wrongful arrest. “Russia has detained Americans for not legitimate law enforcement reasons but because it wants to hold them essentially as hostage,” Miller said. “Americans should not, for any reason, travel to Russia.
East Coast Earthquake Preparedness By By BEN NUCKOLS Posted: 08/25/2011 8:43 am EDT WASHINGTON — There were cracks in the Washington Monument and broken capstones at the National Cathedral. In the District of Columbia suburbs, some people stayed in shelters because of structural concerns at their apartment buildings. A day after the East Coast’s strongest earthquake in 67 years, inspectors assessed the damage and found that most problems were minor. But the shaking raised questions about whether this part of the country, with its older architecture and inexperience with seismic activity, is prepared for a truly powerful quake. The 5.8 magnitude quake felt from Georgia north to Canada prompted swift inspections of many structures Wednesday, including bridges and nuclear plants. An accurate damage estimate could take weeks, if not longer. And many people will not be covered by insurance. In a small Virginia city near the epicenter, the entire downtown business district was closed. School was canceled for two weeks to give engineers time to check out cracks in several buildings. At the 555-foot Washington Monument, inspectors found several cracks in the pyramidion – the section at the top of the obelisk where it begins narrowing to a point. A 4-foot crack was discovered Tuesday during a visual inspection by helicopter. It cannot be seen from the ground. Late Wednesday, the National Park Service announced that structural engineers had found several additional cracks inside the top of the monument. Carol Johnson, a park service spokeswoman, could not say how many cracks were found but said three or four of them were “significant.” Two structural engineering firms that specialize in assessing earthquake damage were being brought in to conduct a more thorough inspection on Thursday. The monument, by far the tallest structure in the nation’s capital, was to remain closed indefinitely, and Johnson said the additional cracks mean repairs are likely to take longer. It has never been damaged by a natural disaster, including earthquakes in Virginia in 1897 and New York in 1944. Tourists arrived at the monument Wednesday morning only to find out they couldn’t get near it. A temporary fence was erected in a wide circle about 120 feet from the flags that surround its base. Walkways were blocked by metal barriers manned by security guards. “Is it really closed?” a man asked the clerk at the site’s bookstore. “It’s really closed,” said the clerk, Erin Nolan. Advance tickets were available for purchase, but she cautioned against buying them because it’s not clear when the monument will open. “This is pretty much all I’m going to be doing today,” Nolan said. Tuesday’s quake was centered about 40 miles northwest of Richmond, 90 miles south of Washington and 3.7 miles underground. In the nearby town of Mineral, Va., Michael Leman knew his Main Street Plumbing & Electrical Supply business would need – at best – serious and expensive repairs. At worst, it could be condemned. The facade had become detached from the rest of the building, and daylight was visible through a 4- to 6-inch gap that opened between the front wall and ceiling. “We’re definitely going to open back up,” Leman said. “I’ve got people’s jobs to look out for.” Leman said he is insured, but some property owners might not be so lucky. The Insurance Information Institute said earthquakes are not covered under standard U.S. homeowners or business insurance policies, although supplemental coverage is usually available. The institute says coverage for other damage that may result from earthquakes, such as fire and water damage from burst gas or water pipes, is provided by standard homeowners and business insurance policies in most states. Cars and other vehicles with comprehensive insurance would also be protected. The U.S. Geological Survey classified the quake as Alert Level Orange, the second-most serious category on its four-level scale. Earthquakes in that range lead to estimated losses between $100 million and $1 billion. In Culpeper, Va., about 35 miles from the epicenter, walls had buckled at the old sanctuary at St. Stephen’s Episcopal Church, which was constructed in 1821 and drew worshippers including Confederate Gens. Robert E. Lee and J.E.B. Stuart. Heavy stone ornaments atop a pillar at the gate were shaken to the ground. A chimney from the old Culpeper Baptist Church built in 1894 also tumbled down. At the Washington National Cathedral, spokesman Richard Weinberg said the building’s overall structure remains sound and damage was limited to “decorative elements.” Massive stones atop three of the four spires on the building’s central tower broke off, crashing onto the roof. At least one of the spires is teetering badly, and cracks have appeared in some flying buttresses. Repairs were expected to cost millions of dollars – an expense not covered by insurance. “Every single portion of the exterior is carved by hand, so everything broken off is a piece of art,” Weinberg said. “It’s not just the labor, but the artistry of replicating what was once there.” The building will remain closed as a precaution. Services to dedicate the memorial honoring Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. were moved. Other major cities along the East Coast that felt the shaking tried to gauge the risk from another quake. A few hours after briefly evacuating New York City Hall, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the city’s newer buildings could withstand a more serious earthquake. But, he added, questions remain about the older buildings that are common in a metropolis founded hundreds of years ago. “We think that the design standards of today are sufficient against any eventuality,” he said. But “there are questions always about some very old buildings. … Fortunately those tend to be low buildings, so there’s not great danger.” An earthquake similar to the one in Virginia could do billions of dollars of damage if it were centered in New York, said Barbara Nadel, an architect who specializes in securing buildings against natural disasters and terrorism. The city’s 49-page seismic code requires builders to prepare for significant shifting of the earth. High-rises must be built with certain kinds of bracing, and they must be able to safely sway at least somewhat to accommodate for wind and even shaking from the ground, Nadel said. Buildings constructed in Boston in recent decades had to follow stringent codes comparable to anything in California, said Vernon Woodworth, an architect and faculty member at the Boston Architectural College. New construction on older structures also must meet tough standards to withstand severe tremors, he said. It’s a different story with the city’s older buildings. The 18th- and 19th-century structures in Boston’s Back Bay, for instance, were often built on fill, which can liquefy in a strong quake, Woodworth said. Still, there just aren’t many strong quakes in New England. The last time the Boston area saw a quake as powerful as the one that hit Virginia on Tuesday was in 1755, off Cape Ann, to the north. A repeat of that quake would likely cause deaths, Woodworth said. Still, the quakes are so infrequent that it’s difficult to weigh the risks versus the costs of enacting tougher building standards regionally, he said. People in several of the affected states won’t have much time to reflect before confronting another potential emergency. Hurricane Irene is approaching the East Coast and could skirt the Mid-Atlantic region by the weekend and make landfall in New England after that. In North Carolina, officials were inspecting an aging bridge that is a vital evacuation route for people escaping the coastal barrier islands as the storm approaches. Speaking at an earthquake briefing Wednesday, Washington Mayor Vincent Gray inadvertently mixed up his disasters. “Everyone knows, obviously, that we had a hurricane,” he said before realizing his mistake. “Hurricane,” he repeated sheepishly as reporters and staffers burst into laughter. “I’m getting ahead of myself!” ___ Associated Press writers Sam Hananel in Washington; Alex Dominguez in Baltimore; Bob Lewis in Mineral, Va.; Samantha Gross in New York City; and Jay Lindsay in Boston contributed to this report.
Russia Says Western Actions Compel It to Boost Its Nuclear Deterrent
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia is warning its Western adversaries that it feels obliged to boost its nuclear deterrent due to what it sees as their “escalatory” course, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted as saying on Thursday.
Ryabkov was cited by state news agency RIA as saying that Russia was not however changing its own nuclear doctrine, which allows for the use of nuclear weapons in case of an existential threat to the state.
“At the moment, there are no changes in this regard. But the situation itself is changing, so how the basic documents in this area relate to the needs of ensuring our security is the subject of constant analysis,” Ryabkov said.
“We warn our opponents that their escalatory trajectory confronts us of course with the need to take steps that actually mean strengthening our measures of deterrence.”
He said exercises involving Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons, announced by Moscow earlier this week, were part of those efforts.
(Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin, writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Andrew Osborn)
“While aftershocks are a concern for this first 24, 36, 72-hour period out to about a week, the entire East Coast is a seismically active area. But most of the earthquakes are relatively small,” said Dax Soule, a seismologist and assistant professor at Queens College.
If a significant aftershock should hit, authorities remind people to drop to the floor, cover your head and neck, and seek shelter under a piece of furniture either in a doorway or next to an interior wall.
Fortunately, there were no injuries or significant damage to major infrastructure as a result of Friday’s earthquake and resulting aftershocks. There were, however, several reports of minor damage throughout the area. including multiple reports of gas leaks and a water main break.
The USGS said Friday’s earthquake was felt from Washington, D.C. to Maine.
In 1884, a 5.0 magnitude earthquake shook the East Coast. The record for earthquakes in New Jersey is 5.3.
The East Coast earthquake’s epicenter was in Whitehouse Station, New Jersey, though it was felt around the surrounding area as far as Connecticut. | CBS News
Natural disasters are becoming increasingly common, but the idea of an earthquake hitting New York is one that brings light to the evergrowing dynamics of our world. On April 5th, 2024, a 4.8 magnitude earthquake hit near the Whitehouse Station, New Jersey, but was felt across Connecticut, the Big Apple, and other parts of New Jersey. The event did not stop there, according to 4.0-magnitude aftershock felt in NYC by Finn Hoogensen, “A 4.0-magnitude aftershock was felt in New York City Friday evening,” hours later. The aftershock was centered around Gladstone, NJ; yet, it spanned other regions in the area. The phenomenon shocked many New Yorkers as the tri state area usually does not experience earthquakes at the magnitude indicated. To better understand the event, Professor Dax Soule of the Environmental Science & Studies department at Queens College weighed in on what this earthquake means for our future, as well as the uniqueness behind it. Professor Soule is an assistant professor who is a geophysicist, his specialty aligns with solid earth geophysics, cloud computing, oceanography, and STEM education. Professor Soule dived into the factors that contributed to the natural disaster by providing an analysis of the bedrock on the East Coast of North America.
He explained that the bedrock in this region contains old rocks that are classed as “cold and dense.” Professor Soule added that, “These rocks have many fractures that, in some cases, can move relative to each other… energy is released, and we feel the earthquake. The big thing to recognize is that, because of how old and cold the bedrock is, this energy travels very well and can be felt a long way from the location of the earthquake.” The East Coast of North America is noted to have an interesting geological history that has many layers to it. Soule’s explanation provides significant details on the formulation of earthquakes; however, there are other important details to note. The East Coast has always been seismically active. Perhaps we do not hear about it as much as countries on the Ring of Fire (Japan and Taiwan are examples), but we have had smaller earthquakes that are not noticed, as they are not as “large.” With this information, Professor Soule concluded that “there are no new trends in seismic activity in the NYS area.” However, New York will be experiencing more earthquakes, and this one should not be considered a one time incident. Most of the earthquakes will be rather small, but there are instances where larger damage might occur, as stated by Professor Soule. This means that older establishments might be in danger if larger earthquakes happen. Additionally, these earthquakes could impact people close to home in the NYC region. “Queens and Long Island are particularly vulnerable because our structures are built on glacial sediments instead of bedrock,” emphasized Soule in his analysis. Even though the New York region might not be plagued by earthquakes, there are useful tools around to monitor activity.
There are various seismic stations on the East Coast, with one being at Queens College. Professor Soule noted that “The USGS manages an early warning system called ShakeAlert that will detect an earthquake and estimate its location, magnitude, and shaking intensity. Warnings from this system can prompt people to use the available moments to protect themselves.” There are safety parameters in place around the East Coast and locally to help understand earthquake activity in the area, even with the concerns that earthquakes bring. With the likelihood of earthquakes increasing in the New York area, small or big, it is a great time to understand how earthquakes impact us locally and in a global sense. The USGS database provides an abundance of information on the topic that relate to recent earthquakes and detailed research on the various regions across the United States. Professor Soule expressed that there are more opportunities for students interested in the field. He stated, “If you are a student at Queens College, you can enroll in the class ‘Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Moving Continents,’ being taught in fall 2024!” Even though the recent earthquake may have caught many people by surprise, it is a reminder of the forgotten geological dynamics worldwide. With the likelihood of increased earthquakes, it’s critical to utilize all available information to best analyze and prepare for future events, both on the local and global scale.
FAS Researchers, In Partnership With The Bulletin Of Atomic Scientists, Release This Seminal Account Each Year In The “Nuclear Notebook”
Washington, D.C. – May 7, 2024 – Nuclear experts at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) today released “Nuclear Notebook: United States Nuclear Weapons 2024,” an annual overview of the current status and trends of the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal. The FAS Nuclear Notebook is widely considered the most accurate public source for information on global nuclear arsenals for all nine nuclear-armed states.
This year’s report, produced in partnership with the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and available in full here, shows the following nuclear trends as Americans enter a presidential election year:
Across-the-board nuclear modernization is well underway;
The modernization plan initially envisioned life-extending existing warheads for existing force structure but is evolving into a more ambitious program of new warhead designs and additional weapon types;
Significant parts of the modernization program are challenged by rising costs and delays (for example, the Sentinel ICBM program is projected to cost 37% more than just four years ago);
Deployment of new B61-12 guided nuclear bomb to Europe imminent;
Strategic competition with Russia and China fuel calls for more nuclear weapons;
Despite calls for transparency of adversarial arsenals, nuclear secrecy at home has increased.
In this issue of the Nuclear Notebook, FAS estimates that the United States maintains a stockpile of approximately 3,708 warheads—an unchanged estimate from the previous year. The total number of U.S. nuclear warheads are now estimated to include 1,770 deployed warheads, 1,938 reserved for operational forces. An additional 1,336 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement, for a total inventory of approximately 5,044 warheads.
Of the deployed warheads, FAS estimates 400 are on intercontinental ballistic missiles [ICBMs], 970 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles [SLBMs], and 300 are located at bomber bases in the United States and approximately 100 tactical bombs are at European bases.
The United States has embarked on a wide-ranging nuclear modernization program that will ultimately see every nuclear delivery system replaced with newer versions over the coming decades. The total cost of this modernization could reach over $1.7 trillion. Calls to increase the nuclear arsenal would increase cost further and compete with non-nuclear defense needs.
The New START treaty, established in 2010 between the United States and Russia, has proven useful so far in keeping a lid on both countries’ deployed strategic forces. But the treaty expires in February 2026 and a decision to renew or not will be made by the next administration. If it is not followed by a new agreement, both the United States and Russia could potentially increase their deployed nuclear arsenals by uploading several hundred of stored reserve warheads onto their launchers.
FAS Nuclear Experts and Previous Issues of Nuclear Notebook
The Prophecy Blog 