The Prophecy is much more than seeing into the future. For the Prophecy sees without the element of time. For the Prophecy sees what is, what was, and what always shall be. 11:11 LLC
In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon added new fuel to a growing debate over how South Korea should arm itself as the North races to perfect its capability to strike the South with tactical nuclear weapons.
“North Korea has nearly succeeded in miniaturising and lightening tactical nuclear weapons and secured at least dozens of warheads,” Oh said. “We’ve come to a point where it is difficult to convince people with the logic that we should refrain from developing nuclear weapons and stick to the cause of denuclearisation.”
He has raised the issue before, saying in February that the South should keep the nuclear option available. But his new comments are his strongest yet.
Oh, an influential member of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s conservative People Power Party, is one of the highest-profile officials to actively advocate for a South Korean nuclear weapons programme.
He is seen as a likely contender for the presidency in 2027. As mayor, he oversees Seoul’s annual civil defence drills and an integrated security mechanism aimed at protecting a metropolitan area that is home to nearly half of the country’s 51 million people.
Amid advances in North Koreas’ military and doubts over the U.S. commitment or ability to protect the South, a growing number of senior South Korean officials have raised the possibility of developing nuclear weapons or redeploying American tactical nuclear bombs and missiles, which were withdrawn from the Korean Peninsula in the 1990s.
As a candidate, Yoon proposed the U.S. redeployment option, but his administration has since said it remains committed to denuclearisation and would reinforce combined conventional defences with the U.S.
Surveys, however, show unprecedented levels of public support in South Korea for the once unthinkable idea of a homegrown nuclear arsenal.
Oh said the Ukraine crisis has cemented his conviction that denuclearisation has lost its appeal, and that nuclear weapons would be the most effective deterrent against the North.
“Russia freely violates Ukraine’s airspace, flying bombers and firing missiles … but Ukraine barely attacks Russian territory because of the psychological inferiority to a nuclear state,” Oh said.
He dismissed opponents who warned of punishments from other countries, including sanctions, saying a South Korean nuclear programme would send a message to countries like China to curb the North’s military buildup.
“There may be some initial resistance from the international community, but I believe that it will gain more support eventually,” he said.
A former senior U.S. official said the increase in rhetoric from the Yoon government seems driven by a desire to pressure the United States into giving South Korea more say in nuclear planning.
Yoon has said U.S. extended deterrence is “falling short of convincing” South Koreans, and Washington has agreed to establish more information-sharing and conduct tabletop drills to enable greater allied cooperation.
In a report this month, Lee Sang-hyun, president of South Korea’s Sejong Institute, said that Yoon is not seriously considering a nuclear programme and that a return of American weapons was also unlikely.
“However, the Yoon government’s nuclear non-proliferation stance has shown small but significant signs of change in recent months,” he wrote. “If North Korea’s nuclear threat becomes more visible and South Korea takes its own path to nuclear development, it will signal the start of a nuclear domino effect in Asia.”
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The announcement last month by President Vladimir Putin of Russia that his country would suspend participation in the last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the United States set off long-dormant alarm bells. American nuclear forces went on red alert, people rushed to restock nuclear shelters, toilet paper and powdered milk vanished from grocery shelves … at least in Mr. Putin’s dreams, given his fantasy of restoring Russia to the salad days of Cold War brinkmanship.
Yet Mr. Putin’s pronouncement was widely interpreted for what it was, saber rattling to convince his cowed citizens that the war against Ukraine really is a life-or-death clash of superpowers. Most Americans appeared to take little notice of the announcement; many probably had only a vague notion of what the New START pact, more formally known as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, was about. Some may have been surprised that there were any agreements between the United States and Russia left to rip up.
Satisfying as it may be to deny Mr. Putin the pleasure of touching off panic in the West, his move was a blunt reminder that the threat of nuclear war is still present, possibly metastasizing, and should not be lightly dismissed.
More than 30 years after the end of the Cold War, the threat of nuclear obliteration simply doesn’t rank among Americans’ greatest fears. For a while after Sept. 11, global terrorism reigned in the public’s mind as the most pressing threat. According to a 2022 survey by the Pew Research Center, cyberattacks are now considered the major global menace, followed by false information, China, Russia, the global economy, infectious diseases and climate change. My grandson, a college student, told me his peers don’t see a global nuclear war as a real danger today.
Yet even the sharply reduced Russian and American nuclear arsenals are still enough to wipe out much of the world, China is pushing hard to become the third nuclear superpower, and at least six other countries, including the uber-dictatorship North Korea, have nuclear weapons (the others: Britain, France, Israel, India and Pakistan).
Perversely, the complexity of today’s world has even generated something akin to nostalgia for a time when there were only two superpowers to deal with and stability depended on mutually assured destruction. But it is hard to be nostalgic about a time when President John Kennedy urged all Americans to prepare nuclear shelters (“The time to start is now”) and nuclear nightmares were the stuff of popular movies like “On the Beach,” “Fail Safe” and “Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.”
True, there were fears when the Soviet Union collapsed that a terrible “second nuclear age” of unchecked proliferation and nuclear terrorism would follow. In fact, since the end of the Cold War only North Korea got its own bomb, and its nuclear program began long before the Soviet Union ended. On the opposite side of the ledger, South Africa abandoned its nuclear program in 1989, and three new states that inherited some Soviet nuclear weapons — Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan — surrendered them (perhaps now to their regret).
Whether Americans are justified in no longer worrying so much about the bomb is another question. Jon Wolfsthal, a senior adviser to Global Zero, a group that advocates the abolition of nuclear weapons, and a fellow at the Center for a New American Security, thinks not. “A lot of this is subjective,” he said. “In the ’60s and ’70s we believed that Russians would launch unless we were on our guard. They were sure that we would launch.” As that fear receded, he said, so did awareness of the ever-present threat. “Before, all senators had to know the language of throw-weight” — the payload of a nuclear missile. “Today, there’s not five senators who understand the issue.”
Yet nuclear arms controls are as needed today as they ever were, and not only with Moscow. Mr. Putin obliquely acknowledged that when, after saying on Feb. 21 that Russia would suspend participation in New START, Russia quickly added that the country would continue to respect the treaty’s limits on nuclear warheads and delivery systems. The alternative, he knew, could be a new arms race in which Russia was no match for America’s economic and technological abilities. In effect, Mr. Putin’s announcement extended a suspension of on-site inspections that began during the pandemic.
That is serious. But at least the principle of limiting strategic nuclear warheads (to 1,550 each) and the missiles, submarines and heavy bombers with which to launch them survives.
Even if the Doomsday Clock doesn’t move any closer to midnight, time is still running out. New START expires in three years. It’s hard to imagine negotiations on a new treaty so long as the war in Ukraine rages on. At the same time, China is racing ahead in an apparent bid to match the U.S. and Russian arsenals by 2035. So far, Beijing has rebuffed any efforts to negotiate limits with the United States, though it joined the United States, Russia, France and Britain in January 2022 in declaring that “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” Even if Russia and China can be brought to the table, the parties will need a new way to define how many bombs each nation needs to deter the other two.
In the meantime, China’s growing arsenal might spur India to build up its own, which could prod Pakistan to do the same. On other fronts, Iran is said to be steadily advancing its nuclear program since former President Donald Trump’s ill-advised withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. And there are no contacts with North Korea, which demonstrated readiness in the past to negotiate constraints on its nuclear program.
With the war in Ukraine casting a pall on Washington’s relations with Russia, China, India and much of the global south, arms controls may seem a waste of time. But the era of arms controls began when relations between Washington and Moscow reached a dangerous low after the Cuban Missile Crisis. Mr. Putin’s missile-rattling may be a signal that the Ukraine war has taken us there again.
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Serge Schmemann joined The Times in 1980 and worked as the bureau chief in Moscow, Bonn and Jerusalem and at the United Nations. He was editorial page editor of The International Herald Tribune in Paris from 2003 to 2013.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats to the West over his war in Ukraine are “real,” according to Grigory Yavlinsky, a Russian opposition politician and founder of Moscow’s last liberal party.
Speaking to Newsweek from Moscow, Yavlinsky, 70, the founder of the Yabloko party and a fierce Putin critic who is calling for a ceasefire in the war, addressed the Russian leader’s nuclear rhetoric throughout the course of the conflict.
In September, Putin ordered Russia’s first mobilization since World War II, saying in a televised address to the nation that he’d be prepared to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory.
“If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will, without doubt, use all available means to protect Russia and our people—this is not a bluff,” Putin said at the time.
Above, then-presidential candidate Grigory Yavlinsky speaks during a meeting with his electorate in Moscow on February 22, 2018. Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats to the West over his war in Ukraine are “real,” according to Yavlinsky.DMITRY SEREBRYAKOV/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
And last month, during his state-of-the-nation address to Russia’s National Assembly, Putin announced that Russia will stop observing the New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement it shared with the United States. The treaty limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads that countries can deploy.
“I think that [Putin’s] nuclear threat is a real threat,” Yavlinsky told Newsweek, echoing Putin’s remarks that the warnings are “not a bluff.”
“It’s a real threat. That kind of weapon is such a serious thing…this is not [just] words, this is a real factor, which you have to take into consideration in the current situation. That’s it,” he said.
Yavlinsky ran against Putin in presidential elections twice and has voiced his opposition to Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine since the conflict began on February 24, 2022. He has described the war, for his nation, as “akin to a self-imposed nuclear strike.”
Yabloko is a social-liberal party that has deputies in five regional parliaments: Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Pskov region, Karelia and Kostroma.
Yavlinsky said his belief that Putin’s nuclear warnings are real is one of the main reasons he is calling for an immediate ceasefire. His remarks come as fears grow that a future attempt by Ukraine to recapture Crimea would be a red line for Russia and that Putin may use his country’s nuclear capabilities to defend the territory.
Alexander Formanchuk, the chairman of Crimea’s Civic Chamber, told state-run news agency RIA Novosti on January 31 that he believes a global nuclear war will “immediately” break out should any attempt be made to return Crimea to Ukrainian control.
“ISW has assessed that Russian invocations of nuclear threats and nuclear doctrine are part of an information operation meant to discourage Ukraine and the West but do not represent any material Russian intent to employ nuclear weapons,” the ISW report said.
“Today [Putin’s] bluffing and we know that he has bluffed about nuclear threats. Ukrainians recovered some parts of their territory, and there was no nuclear retaliation,” he said in a phone interview from Switzerland.
A Borei-class nuclear-powered submarine launches a Bulava ballistic missile in the Barents Sea in August 2019. (TASS)
Russia’s missile and submarine capabilities compared to the Cold War Soviet era have exponentially developed, posing a serious and drastic threat to the United States, the Director of Russia Maritime Studies Institute (RMSI) told Newsweek.
Michael Petersen, a professor at the US Naval War College and founding director of RMSI, explained the difference between submarine advancement in current-day Russia and Soviet Russia.
The Russian Navy witnessed a massive modernization campaign since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, ranking today as one of the largest submarine fleets worldwide with nearly 58 vessels, 11 of which are nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, according to Nuclear Threat Initiative (RTI).
Russia’s threat to the US has now shifted from ballistic missiles to cruise missiles, Peterson added.
During the Cold War era, he noted, the Soviet Union used to deploy nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines off the western and eastern coasts of the US, however, as its submarine and warfare technology developed, the Soviets were able to change the location of their undersea vessels to distant locations while posing the same threat.
“Moving forward into today, what is the same? And what is different? I’ll start with the differences,” he started.
“So the difference today is that Russia today, as far as I’m aware, it does not deploy ballistic missile submarines off the coast of the United States. That’s a shift, and that is a reflection of the improving technology.”
By the end of the Cold War, the majority of ballistic missile submarines were being deployed in the Barents Sea and the Arctic region.
“So that hasn’t changed. Because the technology has allowed Russia to maintain strategic ballistic missile force that has enough range and enough accuracy to strike from these bastions.”
According to the navy expert, Russia’s navy today has long-endurance nuclear-powered submarines that are able to launch different types of missiles, including ones holding nuclear warheads, with great accuracy.
“So we’ve gone from a ballistic missile threat to a cruise missile threat. That’s not to say that the ballistic missile threat is non-existent, it’s still there. It’s just in a different location,” he said.
In recent years, Moscow has been manufacturing a number of submarines that are capable of targeting sensitive sites both in the US and the European continent.
In 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed off a Naval Doctrine that sets forward a series of measures to develop the navy’s capabilities, in addition to shifting its strategic and operational role and future goals.
By 2030, Russia “must possess powerful balanced fleets in all strategic areas,” the document said then.
The new fleets, according to the doctrine, must include ships that can operate in the near and far seas, in addition to naval forces equipped with powerful striking weapons with high accuracy.
The document, dubbed by Russia as “The Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Naval Operations for the Period Until 2030,” states that the Naval forces must provide deterrence in addition to the ability to effectively retaliate against foreign attacks.
In June 2022, the United States Navy launched the building of its largest and most advanced Columbia-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), as part of its aspirations to modernize its sea fleets.
The US has around 64 submarines, including attack submarines, in addition to guided missile and ballistic missile submarines.
In December 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that four more nuclear-powered submarines will be built as part of the country’s current weapons program, ensuring the country’s security for many years to come.
The new submarines and ships would be outfitted with high-precision weapons and robotic systems, as well as advanced navigation, communication, and sonar equipment.
Russian ballistic missile submarines, which are currently being developed and built, have many distinguishing features, while new submarines and surface vessels have modern navigation, communications, and sonar systems, as well as high-precision weapons and robotic systems, Putin detailed.
“We will increase the pace and volume of construction of ships of various projects, equip them with the most modern weapons, and conduct operational and combat training of sailors, taking into account the experience gained, including during a special military operation.”
“In short, we will do everything necessary to reliably ensure the security of Russia and to protect our national interests in the oceans,” Putin added.
While Russia’s use of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine is grabbing attention worldwide, US defense officials believe China is outpacing Russia in developing hypersonic weapons and may have already fielded a weapon that can strike US facilities in the Pacific.
On March 10, the Defense Intelligence Agency’s chief scientist for science and technology told US lawmakers that China and Russia had tested hypersonic weapons successfully and had probably deployed operational systems. However, China currently outpaces Russia regarding supporting infrastructure and system numbers.
Paul Freisthler, the chief scientist for DIA’s analysis division, told a House Armed Services subcommittee that China had made significant advancements in developing conventional and nuclear-armed hypersonic missile technology and capabilities through intense, concentrated investment, development, testing, and deployment.
In addition, China has been testing an intercontinental ballistic missile since 2014 that carries a hypersonic glide warhead. He added that the weapon demonstrated its ability to traverse the world in July 2021.
Freisthler mentioned that China’s Academy of Aerodynamics allegedly uses at least three hypersonic wind tunnels with operating speeds of Mach 8, 10, and 12.
Hypersonic missiles, capable of moving at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound, strike their targets in a blinding, destructive flash, leaving little time for a defense.
So far, no foolproof defenses have been developed. Being quick, efficient, precise, and unstoppable on the modern battlefield are rare but highly valued qualities.
According to data from the Congressional Research Service and the Defense Intelligence Agency, China reportedly runs two hypersonic weapon research facilities with at least 21 wind tunnels.File Image: China’s DF-17 Hypersonic Missile
In July 2021, China’s hypersonic weapon successfully circled the globe during a system test, leading a prominent US defense official to compare the event to the beginning of the initial space race in the 1950s.
The DF-17 is a medium-range ballistic missile important to China’s hypersonic arsenal. With a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, the missile can be fired from a mobile transport-erector launcher. The DF-17 can be launched as an HGV system from a standard rocket booster.
Moreover, China also possesses the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile, equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle.
According to Chinese media, the DF-41 missile can carry around ten independently targetable nuclear warheads with an operational range of more than 14,000 kilometers, making it capable of striking any location on Earth.
Meanwhile, on March 9, Russia launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine, using around six hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. The Kinzhal has a range of about 2,000 kilometers and can go up to Mach 10. File Image: Avangard Missile
Moreover, Russia has the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, which it claims has a range of more than 6,000 kilometers and a top speed of Mach 20. In addition, there is the ship-launched Zircon hypersonic missile, which has a 1,000-kilometer range and a top speed of Mach 8.
According to Freisthler, Moscow has also revealed plans to mount a hypersonic glide vehicle on its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile and is currently working on an air-launched hypersonic missile (the Kh-95).
The US military has been working on various hypersonic weapons, all still in the testing or development stages.
In contrast to China and Russia, officials havestated that the United States has no intentions to equip any of its hypersonic weapons with nuclear warheads.
American officials are concerned that the Chinese could use hypersonic weapons to attack American warplanes and other assets at bases in Japan or Guam.
The weapons may even unexpectedly penetrate the decks of one of America’s 11 multibillion-dollar aircraft carriers, ending aviation operations instantly in the area of operation.
Defense analysts pointed out this vulnerability might someday make the floating behemoths outdated.
In the coming decades, these new weapons could carry out a task that nuclear weapons have long been envisioned to do: launch a first strike against the government or arsenals of another country, disrupt key communication channels, and weaken some of its retaliatory forces.
All of this could be accomplished without the radioactive fallout and specific condemnation that could result from the explosion of nuclear warheads.
New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, left, meets Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, Australia, Tuesday, Feb. 7, 2023. [AP Photo/Hilary Wardhaugh]
This week the corporate media in the United States and Australia launched a coordinated barrage aimed at preparing their populations for war against China in the very near future. Prominent articles in the Sydney Morning Herald and the Age call for the introduction of mass conscription and preparations for Australia to host as many as 200,000 US military personnel.
In the US, President Joe Biden has requested a record $1 trillion budget for military spending. This is both to escalate the US-NATO war against Russia over Ukraine and to boost the militarisation of Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region in preparation for war with China, which is viewed as the main obstacle to US geopolitical dominance.
US imperialism is hurtling towards all-out war against Russia and China, in a desperate bid to resolve its historic decline, and to divert the explosive class tensions over social inequality within the United States. It is becoming increasingly clear that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, provoked by the US and NATO, is only the opening stage of what threatens to be a catastrophic Third World War involving nuclear-armed powers.
Washington is demanding that its allies fall into line. This includes New Zealand, a minor imperialist power allied to the US and Australia, and a member of the US-led Five Eyes intelligence sharing network.
Successive New Zealand governments have sent soldiers to join the bloody US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and have welcomed the growing US militarisation of the Indo-Pacific over the past decade. The current Labour Party-led government has sent hundreds of NZ troops to Britain to help train Ukrainian conscripts, and has provided millions of dollars in funding for the war against Russia.
The government and the corporate media have been considerably more reluctant to openly join the belligerent US-led denunciations of China, for fear of damaging New Zealand’s most important trading relationship. In the year ending March 2022, China accounted for 26.8 percent of New Zealand’s exports, mostly dairy and other agricultural products.
With the media, politicians and military leaders in the US and Australia now declaring that war is inevitable, pressure is being applied to the New Zealand government to drop any pretence of a “neutral” or “independent” position.
On March 7, Newshub’s Melissa Chan-Green asked Prime Minister Chris Hipkins whether he had been contacted by US officials regarding “potential sanctions on China if they were to support military assistance [for Russia] in Ukraine.” Hipkins refused to reveal what has been discussed with the US, but said New Zealand would “take a very dim view of any other governments that were seen to be supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” Beijing has denied Washington’s claim that it is considering providing weapons to Russia.
Three days later Newshub interviewed Scott Brown, a former US Republican senator who served as ambassador to New Zealand from 2017 to 2020. He declared that while New Zealand had to make its own decisions, China should face “consequences” for “meddling and helping” Russia. Brown, who was a US military officer during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, hypocritically ranted that China was “militarising islands,” “stealing our intellectual property” and “not playing by the rules”—that is, the rules set by US imperialism.
Addressing concerns about the impact on trade if New Zealand supported US moves against China, Brown said “it will be up to the United States and all the other countries to backfill any loss New Zealand has in their trade.”
Brown has a record of intervening publicly in New Zealand’s domestic politics. Following an inconclusive election in September 2017, he gave a series of extraordinary media interviews in which he made clear that Washington viewed the National Party government as too close to China and wanted the next government to take a tougher line against Beijing.
Shortly afterwards, the Labour-NZ First-Greens government was formed, with the right-wing and viciously anti-Chinese NZ First leader Winston Peters serving as foreign minister and deputy prime minister. NZ First, which is deeply unpopular in the working class, failed to win any seats in the 2020 election.
Brown’s reappearance sends a clear signal that Washington is closely observing NZ politics and is demanding a more decisive shift against China.
Canberra is also stepping up its collaboration with New Zealand in preparation for war. On March 9, the New Zealand Herald revealed that last October the Australian government spoke with New Zealand officials about “domestic and international efforts to build resilience to economic coercion.”
On the same day, Stuff reported that New Zealand’s spy agency, the Security and Intelligence Service, has been investigating Yuan Zhao, a senior public servant, for allegedly passing information to Beijing. Zhao, a New Zealand citizen who immigrated from China in 2006, said he was detained and interrogated at Wellington Airport last October. The SIS confiscated his phone and he was suspended from his job at the Public Service Commission.
No evidence has been released against Zhao, who maintains his innocence and has complained to the inspector-general of Intelligence and Security that he felt threatened by the SIS. The Chinese embassy denounced the allegations against Zhao, telling the media they were “ill-founded, and with an ulterior motive to smear and attack China, which we firmly oppose.”
Despite the lack of evidence, and the well-known close collaboration between the intelligence agencies and their US counterparts, the pro-Labour Party Daily Blog immediately declared: “we have another Chinese Spy.” The blog’s editor Martyn Bradbury has echoed allegations made by Brady that the opposition National Party is a tool of Beijing, and demanded surveillance of NZ’s Chinese community. He has also regurgitated the far-right conspiracy theory that COVID-19 originated in a Chinese laboratory.
Last April, in response to the World Socialist Web Site’s exposure of his militarist and anti-China propaganda, Bradbury published an inflammatory article demanding that the SIS “openly investigate [the] Socialist Equality Group as Chinese enablers and for possible treason.”
The Daily Blog’s embrace of the SIS and frothing hostility towards anti-war socialists exposes the fraud of its claims to support a “neutral” foreign policy. Yesterday, Bradbury published an article supporting the Maori Party’s proposal for a withdrawal from the Five Eyes. He declared: “Let’s be clear, not one of us wants to get tricked by America into fighting China.”
The same article demanded a “vastly larger military” with military spending increased from the current level of less than 2 percent of GDP to 3 percent, in line with NATO and the US. The blog has aligned itself with elements in the political establishment and business elite, including Maori capitalists, who are in favour of stepped up preparations for war and the demonisation of China, while maintaining a pretence of “independence.”
History proves that there is no pacifist tendency in New Zealand’s ruling class, which sent tens of thousands of people to fight and die in two world wars, and which depends on a close alliance with the US and Australia to uphold NZ’s imperialist interests in the Pacific region and more broadly.
In the working class there is widespread and deeply-entrenched hostility to war, which has yet to find organised political expression. This requires the building of a socialist party, independent of all the parliamentary parties and hostile to the Labour-Greens government and its pseudo-left and liberal supporters. The fight against war is impossible without the fight to mobilise the international working class to overthrow its source: the capitalist system.
The US Intelligence Community asserted that the Ukraine war is reshaping the geo-political dynamics and the equations of China and Russia with the West are also going through a change.
The intelligence community of the United States believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin can use nuclear weapons to end the Ukraine war. The Annual Threat Assessment report released on Wednesday added that Putin may also drag the US-led West to the Ukraine war in an effort to win back public support.
Putin’s escalation may also delve from the larger opinion that the United States is using Ukraine as a proxy to weaken Russia, the report said, adding that the narrative around Ukraine’s military successes is only a result of US and NATO intervention could presage further Russian escalationThe US Intelligence Community asserted that the Ukraine war is reshaping the geo-political dynamics and the equations of China and Russia with the West are also going through a change.
It also added that how the conflict and its consequent geopolitical spillover will unfold remain highly certain. It claimed that the escalation of the conflict into a military confrontation between Russia and the West carries a risk that the world has not witnessed in decades.
Russia’s recent missile attack across Ukraine cities
Russia launched a widespread missile attack on various cities in Ukraine on Thursday, primarily targeting energy infrastructure facilities. This was the first attack of such magnitude in three weeks. Although residential buildings were reportedly hit, Ukrainian officials have not confirmed any casualties yet.
Explosions and the blaring of air raid sirens shook Ukraine, particularly it’s capital city of Kyiv, for several hours following the massive missile attack unleashed by Russia.
The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, reported that explosions had occurred in the Holosiivskyi district, and emergency services were en route to the area to respond.
In eastern Ukraine, 15 missiles hit the city of Kharkiv and its surrounding northeastern region, damaging residential buildings.
The battle of Bakhmut continues to dominate news out of Ukraine this week, with all eyes on the fate of the city in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
The leader of Russia’s mercenary forces fighting in Bakhmut said Wednesday that his private military company, the Wagner Group, had taken full control of the eastern part of the city. CNBC was unable to verify the claims.
Ukrainian servicemen load an artillery cannon as they target Russian positions in the front line nearby Bakhmut in Donbas, Ukraine, on March 5, 2023.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Ukraine gave a military update Wednesday in which it noted that Ukraine had repelled over 100 attacks on the Donetsk region over the past day, including on Bakhmut. But it said Russian forces were “continuing their unsuccessful offensive operations” in the area.
WED, MAR 8 202311:06 PM EST
Russia unleashes wave of missile strikes on Ukraine, officials say
Kyiv and other major cities in Ukraine, including Lviv, Kharkiv and Odesa, have been hit by a wave of Russian missile strikes overnight, Ukrainian officials said, with air raid alerts activated across much of the country in the early hours of Thursday.
The Mayor of Kyiv Vitali Klitschko said the capital had been hit by a number of explosions that had damaged energy infrastructure and injured several civilians.
In his most recent post on Telegram this morning, Klitschko said that due to emergency power outages after the missile attack, 40% of the capital’s residents were without heating.
The air alert lasted almost seven hours in the capital, Serhii Popko, head of the Kyiv city military administration, said on Telegram as he accused Russia of unleashing “almost all types of their air weapons” from Iranian-made drones to “almost all types of cruise missiles.”
Popko said preliminary information indicated that a Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles (a nuclear-capable, Russian air-launched ballistic missile) had hit an infrastructure object. CNBC wasn’t able to verify the claims.
Officials in the southern port of Odesa, Lviv in western Ukraine and Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine all reported missile strikes overnight while in the Dnipro area, a regional official said there was “serious destruction” as a result of the shelling with “energy infrastructure and industrial enterprises” damaged. A number of fatalities have been reported in Lviv and Dnipro.
The governor of the northeastern Kharkiv region, Oleh Syniehubov, said Ukraine’s second-largest city Kharkiv had seen around 15 strikes on the city and region. “Objects of critical infrastructure are again under the sights of the occupiers,” he said, adding that “information about the victims and the scale of the destruction is being clarified.” Residents in the area have been told to stay in shelters.
— Holly Ellyatt
WED, MAR 8 202310:44 PM EST
Zelenskyy honors women working to defend Ukraine on International Women’s Day
Ukrainian female soldiers stand with flowers and state awards awarded by the Ukrainian President during the International Women’s Day celebration in Kyiv on March 08, 2023.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
On International Women’s Day, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented high state awards to women who “distinguished themselves with selfless work and bravery in the defense of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
“Today we thank our women who are fighting, caring, working for peace for Ukraine, for the protection of our lives, our freedom, our people,” Zelenskyy said during the ceremony at the Mariyinsky Palace in Kyiv, according to the president’s official website.
Orders and medals were awarded to women in the service and representatives of civilian professions.
— Audrey Wan
WED, MAR 8 20237:22 PM EST
Natalia Popova continues to run war-injured animal shelter in Ukraine
Natalia Popova has helped rescue hundreds of animals from the war in Ukraine at the war-injured animal shelter which she manages in Chubynske, Ukraine.
Many of them were wild animals kept as pets in private homes before their owners left due to Russian shelling and rockets.
Natalia Popova poses for a photo at the war-injured animal shelter which she manages in Chubynske, Ukraine on March 8, 2023. Natalia Popova, in collaboration with other volunteers, has already rescued hundreds of animals from the war. Many of them were wild animals kept as pets in private homes before their owners left due to Russian shelling and rockets. (Photo by Oleksii Chumachenko/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Oleksii Chumachenko | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images Images
Natalia Popova pets a lion in the shelter for animals injured by the war, which she manages in Chubynske, Ukraine, on March 8, 2023.
Oleksii Chumachenko | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images Images
Lion cubs are seen in the enclosure at Natalia Popova’s shelter for war injured animals in Chubynske, Ukraine on March 8, 2023.
Oleksii Chumachenko | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images Images
Natalia Popova pets a tiger in the shelter for animals injured by the war, which she manages in Chubynske, Ukraine, on March 8, 2023. Natalia Popova, in collaboration with other volunteers, has already rescued hundreds of animals from the war.
Oleksii Chumachenko | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images Images
Natalia Popova stands near the enclosure with a young tiger in the shelter for animals injured during the war, which she manages in Chubynske, Ukraine, on March 8, 2023.
Oleksii Chumachenko | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images Images
– Oleksii Chumachenko | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
WED, MAR 8 20236:21 PM EST
U.S. gets warrant to seize $25 million Boeing airplane owned by Rosneft
An illuminated logo sits on display above the Rosneft Oil Co. pavilion on June 5, 2019. Russia’s Rosneft is holding back on signing new crude oil deals with two Indian state refiners, three sources with knowledge of the matter said, as it has committed sales to other customers.
Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The U.S. obtained a warrant to seize a Boeing 737 airplane owned by Russian oil giant Rosneft over alleged sanctions violations stemming from the invasion of Ukraine, the Department of Justice said.
The investigation into the aircraft, believed to be valued at over $25 million, was coordinated by the Justice Department’s “KleptoCapture” team, which was launched last year to enforce sanctions on Russian oligarchs. Rosneft is headed by Igor Sechin, reportedly a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
A federal court in Brooklyn, New York, authorized the seizure based on violations of the Export Control Reform Act and sanctions that the U.S. slapped on Russia last year in response to the invasion, the DOJ said in a press release.
The plane allegedly left and re-entered Russia at least seven times since those sanctions were imposed in February 2022. “In this case, these sanctions bar a plane that was built or manufactured in the United States from entering Russia without a valid license,” according to the press release.
— Kevin Breuninger
WED, MAR 8 20235:05 PM EST
Ukrainian soldiers hold their positions near Bakhmut
The small village of Chasiv Yar, only 5 kilometers from Bakhmut, is one of the last towns around the city still under control by the Ukranian cities. As so, it has become a hub for resupply and the movement of troops. It has suffered several attacks by Russian artillery in the last days.
Ukrainian soldiers are seen in the BTR military vehicles on the road in near the Bakhmut frontline as military mobility continues within the Russian-Ukrainian war in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on March 07, 2023.
Marek M. Berezowski | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Ukrainian servicemen load an armoured vehicle before deployed to the frontline of Bakhmut, in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk, Ukraine, March 8 2023.
Ignacio Marin | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Ukrainian servicemen prepare to move to the front line near the city of Bakhmut, on March 8, 2023, amid Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Aris Messinis | Afp | Getty Images
A Ukrainian serviceman takes cover in a trench during shelling next to a 105mm howitzer near the city of Bakhmut, on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Aris Messinis | Afp | Getty Images
Ukrainian combat medics evacuate a wounded Ukrainian servicem?n from the front line near Bakhmut, on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Sergey Shestak | AFP | Getty Images
Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer towards Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut, on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Aris Messinis | Afp | Getty Images
EDITORS NOTE: Graphic content / Ukrainian servicemen sit inside a field ambulance next to their fallen comrade as they come back from the front line near the city of Bakhmut, on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Aris Messinis | Afp | Getty Images
Ukrainian servicemen move towards the front line near the city of Bakhmut, on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Aris Messinis | Afp | Getty Images
– Getty Images
WED, MAR 8 20233:18 PM EST
UN and Russia to talk about grain deal renewal next week in Geneva
A team inspects the produce in the ship carrying wheat from Ukraine to Afghanistan after inspection in the open sea around Zeytinburnu district of Istanbul, Turkiye on January 24, 2023.
TUR Ministry of National Defence | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Top U.N. trade official Rebeca Grynspan will meet senior Russian officials in Geneva next week to discuss extending a deal that allows the Black Sea export of Ukraine grains amid Russia’s war in the country, a U.N. spokesperson said on Wednesday.
“That’s the next step, and we’ll see whether anything further is needed than that,” deputy U.N. spokesperson Farhan Haq told reporters.
“The Secretary-General will continue to do all he can to remove obstacles to the export of Russian fertilizers.”
The deal is set to expire later this month.
— Reuters
WED, MAR 8 20232:28 PM EST
Ukraine carries out a series of missile strikes on Russian positions, Ukraine’s military says
Ukranian soldiers of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade aim the mortar before a strike at an undisclosed location along the frontline near Toretsk, Donetsk, March 4 2023.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Ukraine’s military said in the past 24 hours it carried out a series of missile strikes on separate areas where there was a high contingency of Russian troops.
Ukraine also said that it shot down one unmanned aerial vehicle, destroyed a Buk-M1-2 anti-aircraft missile system as well as three Russian warehouses storing fuel and military supplies.
The Ukrainian armed forces said that Russian troops carried out “22 airstrikes and 29 attacks from rocket salvo systems.”
“In particular, they used one unmanned aerial vehicle of the Shahed-136 type, which has been eliminated,” Ukraine’s military said, referencing an Iranian drone supplied to Russia.
— Amanda Macias
WED, MAR 8 20231:16 PM EST
Blacksmith turned artist makes ‘flowers of war’ from abandoned weapons in Donetsk
Viktor Mikhalev shows roses transformed from weapons and ammunition into flowers of war standing in a workshop in his house in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Saturday, March 4, 2023. Mikhalev, trained as a welder, lives and works in a house whose fence and door are decorated with forged flowers and grapes.
Alexei Alexandrov | AP
Viktor Mikhalev, a blacksmith living in the Russian-controlled eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, is creating art out of weapons and ammunition, the Associated Press reports.
Mikhalev uses half-burnt machine guns, artillery shells and other abandoned weapons from the frontlines to produce what he calls “flowers of war.”
“Real flowers will not last long, and my roses will become a reminder for a long memory,” Mikhalev told the AP.
Viktor Mikhalev shows roses transformed from weapons and ammunition into flowers of war standing in a workshop in his house in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Saturday, March 4, 2023. Mikhalev, trained as a welder, lives and works in a house whose fence and door are decorated with forged flowers and grapes.
Alexei Alexandrov | AP
A rose transformed from weapons and ammunition into flowers of war by hands of Viktor Mikhalev is on display in a workshop in his house in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Saturday, March 4, 2023.
Alexei Alexandrov | AP
Roses transformed from weapons and ammunition into flowers of war by hands of Viktor Mikhalev are on display in a workshop in his house in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Saturday, March 4, 2023.
Alexei Alexandrov | AP
Viktor Mikhalev works in a workshop in his house in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Tuesday, Jan. 24, 2023.
Alexei Alexandrov | AP
A customer holds a rose made by Viktor Mikhalev in a workshop in his house in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Saturday, March 4, 2023.
Alexei Alexandrov | AP
— Amanda Macias
WED, MAR 8 202312:28 PM EST
Russia is expanding and modernizing its nuclear weapons capabilities, U.S. spy chiefs warn
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines testifies during the Senate Select Intelligence Committee hearing on “Worldwide Threats” on Thursday, March 10, 2022.
“Throughout its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has continued to show that it views its nuclear capabilities as necessary for maintaining deterrence and achieving its goals in a potential conflict against the United States and NATO, and it sees its nuclear weapons arsenal as the ultimate guarantor of the Russian Federation,” the intelligence community wrote in the unclassified assessment.
“After Russian military losses during Ukraine’s counteroffensive in late summer 2022, Putin publicly warned the West that he was ready to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia,” the report added.
Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would suspend participation in the New START treaty, a crucial nuclear arms reduction agreement. Moscow holds the world’s largest nuclear weapons stockpile.
— Amanda Macias
WED, MAR 8 202311:39 AM EST
Zelenskyy to speak to CNN’s Wolf Blitzer in wide-ranging, prime-time interview
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled Kyiv is preparing its soldiers for counteroffensives and praised soldiers for defending the country despite the “insane pressure” Russian forces have been putting on them.
Julien De Rosa | Pool | Reuters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will speak with CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer for a wide-ranging interview, the network announced.
The two are expected to discuss China’s relationship with Russia, President Joe Biden’s recent trip to Kyiv and the ongoing battle for Bakhmut.
The interview is set for 9 p.m. E.T.
— Amanda Macias
WED, MAR 8 202311:06 AM EST
Wagner Group leader says that the best of its fighters are still ‘waiting in the wings’
A mural depicting the Wagner Group’s logo in Belgrade, Serbia.
Srdjan Stevanovic | Getty Images
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group of mercenaries fighting in Donetsk, said that the best of its fighters are “waiting in the wings.”
He also said, according to an NBC News translation, that the Wagner forces fighting in Bakhmut had taken full control of the eastern part of the city.
— Amanda Macias
WED, MAR 8 202310:04 AM EST
UN secretary-general and Zelenskyy discuss renewing Black Sea grain deal in Kyiv
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (R) and United Nations’ Secretary-General Antonio Guterres (L) give a joint statement following their meeting in Kyiv on March 8, 2023.
Sergei Supinsky | Afp | Getty Images
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv to discuss the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, eased Russia’s naval blockade and saw three key Ukrainian ports reopen. The deal is set to expire later this month.
More than 23 million tons of grain have been exported from Ukrainian ports so far under the agreement. The deal has “contributed to lowering the global cost of food and has offered critical relief to people, who are also paying a high price for this war, particularly in the developing world,” Guterres said.
He added that the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index has fallen by almost 20% over the last year. Guterres stressed that exports of “Ukrainian as well as Russian food and fertilizers are essential to global food security and food prices.”
“I want to underscore the critical importance of the rollover of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on 18 March and of working to create the conditions to enable the greatest possible use of export infrastructures through the Black Sea, in line with the objectives of the initiative,” Guterres said alongside Zelenskyy.
— Amanda Macias
WED, MAR 8 20239:21 AM EST
Three ships leave Ukrainian ports under Black Sea Grain Initiative
A crew member prepares a grain analysis for members of the Joint Coordination Center onboard the Barbados-flagged ship “Nord Vind,” which was coming from Ukraine loaded with grain and anchored in Istanbul, on Oct. 11, 2022.
Yasin Akgul | Afp | Getty Images
Three ships carrying 62,700 metric tons of grain and other food products have left Ukrainian ports, the organization overseeing the export of agricultural products from the country said.
The vessels are destined for Spain and are carrying corn and wheat.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, eased Russia’s naval blockade and saw three key Ukrainian ports reopen. The deal is set to expire on March 20.
So far, more than 780 ships have sailed from Ukrainian ports.
— Amanda Macias
WED, MAR 8 20238:41 AM EST
Bakhmut may fall but it’s unlikely to be a turning point in the war, NATO chief says
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks during a news conference following a NATO defence ministers meeting at the Alliance’s headquarters in Brussels, Belgium June 16, 2022.
Yves Herman | Reuters
The beseiged city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine could soon be fully captured by Russian forces, NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday, but it’s unlikely to represent a turning point in the war.
Russian forces, he said, had “suffered big losses but at the same time we cannot rule out that Bakhmut may eventually fall in the coming days and therefore it is also important to highlight that this does not necessarily reflect any turning point of the war and it just highlights that we should not underestimate Russia. We must continue to provide support to Ukraine,” he said as he attended a meeting of EU defence ministers in Stockholm.
“Russia’s war of aggression grinds on against Ukraine and over the last weeks and months we have seen fierce fighting in and around Bakhmut and what we see is that Russia is throwing in more troops, more forces and what Russia lacks in quality, they try to make up in quantity,” he added.
— Holly Ellyatt
WED, MAR 8 20238:03 AM EST
Police response to protests in Georgia causes concern
Protesters clash with riot police near the Georgian parliament in Tbilisi on March 7, 2023.
– | Afp | Getty Images
Police in Georgia have reportedly used tear gas and stun grenades to respond to protests outside the Georgian Parliament on Wednesday.
Demonstrations in the capital erupted after after legislators gave initial backing to a draft law on “foreign agents” that would require any organizations receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as “foreign agents” or face fines.
Reuters witnesses in the capital, Tbilisi, saw police with riot shields making arrests along Rustaveli Avenue, the main thoroughfare running through the center of the city. Some demonstrators were seen throwing petrol bombs and stones, the news agency reported.
Protesters wave Georgian, Ukrainian and NATO flags during clashes in Tbilisi on March 7, 2023.
– | Afp | Getty Images
Critics see the draft law as authoritarian and akin to a Russian-style directive designed to restrict civil society and repress media freedom.
Georgia has a strained and tense relationship with Russia which invaded the country in 2008 in support of two pro-Russian separatist areas, similarly to its support of two pro-Russian self-declared “republics” in Ukraine.
Like Ukraine, Georgia applied to join the EU and NATO, fearing Russia’s potential attempts to spread, or impose, its influence. The protests this week have attracted pro-EU demonstrators who waved EU flags and chanted anti-Russian slogans.
Charles Michel, president of the European Council, said on Twitter that he was “strongly concerned about developments in Georgia,” adding that the “right to peaceful protest is at the core of any democracy.”
He said the “adoption of this ‘foreign influence’ law is not compatible with the EU path” which the majority in Georgia wants, he said, adding that “commitment to rule of law and human values is key to EU project.”
— Holly Ellyatt
WED, MAR 8 20235:55 AM EST
EU looks at increasing ammunition production to support Ukraine
A Helicopter crew member of the 18th Separate Army Aviation Brigade carries boxes of ammunition, in eastern Ukraine on February 9, 2023 amid Russia’s military invasion on Ukraine.
Ihor Tkachov | Afp | Getty Images
The European Union needs to step up production of ammunition across the bloc to support Ukraine’s war efforts, officials said Wednesday as they gathered for a meeting in Stockholm, Sweden.
“The Ukrainians direly need ammunition in order to continue this war…We have to ramp up production in Europe. There’s various ways to go about this,” Sweden’s Defense Minister Pål Jonson said Wednesday.
Speaking ahead of the meeting, Europe’s internal market chief Thierry Breton also said Europe needs to do more to support Kyiv. “The priority is to make sure we will be able to provide what is necessary to Ukraine,” he said.
He added that support to Ukraine needs to happen in three ways: member states need to give more of their ammunition stocks, they need to ramp up production and to allocate more EU funding to defense.
One of the ideas under discussion is the joint purchase of ammunition. This is similar to what the EU did during the pandemic when buying Covid vaccines together. In practice, this approach should allow the block to buy more stocks at lower prices.
— Silvia Amaro
WED, MAR 8 20235:36 AM EST
Kremlin says Nord Stream attack reports are ‘coordinated’, demands open investigation
Western media reports on the blowing-up of the Nord Stream gas pipelines are a coordinated bid to divert attention and Russia is perplexed that U.S. officials can assume anything about the attacks without an investigation, the Kremlin said on Wednesday.
The New York Times, citing intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials, reported on Tuesday that a pro-Ukraine group — likely made up of Ukrainians or Russians — was responsible for blowing up the Nord Stream gas pipelines that run under the Baltic Sea between Russia and Germany last September.
In this Handout Photo provided by Swedish Coast Guard, the release of gas emanating from a leak on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea on September 27, 2022 in At Sea.
Swedish Coast Guard | Getty Images
Germany’s ARD broadcaster and Die Zeit newspaper said the attack was carried out by five men and one woman who rented a yacht and used false passports.
“Obviously, the authors of the attack want to divert attention,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the state RIA news agency, adding that the information had been planted.
“How can American officials assume anything without an investigation?”
“The very least that the Nord Stream shareholder countries and the United Nations must demand is an urgent, transparent investigation with the participation of everyone who can shed light,” Peskov said.
The Nord Stream 1 shareholders are Russia’s state energy firm Gazprom, Germany’s Wintershall and E.ON, Dutch company NV Nederlandse Gasunie and France’s Engie.
Gazprom is the sole shareholder in the parallel Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was constructed with financing from Wintershall, Engie, Austria’s OMV, Shell and Germany’s Uniper.
Russia has repeatedly complained about being excluded from European probes into the explosions.
“We are still not allowed in the investigation. Only a few days ago we received notes about this from the Danes and Swedes,” Peskov said. “This is not just strange. It smells like a monstrous crime.”
The undersea explosions, seven months into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, occurred in the exclusive economic zones of Sweden and Denmark in the Baltic Sea. Both countries have concluded the blasts were deliberate, but have not said who might be responsible.
Russia, without providing evidence, has at various times accused Britain and the United States of blowing up the pipelines, which they deny. The ruptured pipelines are set to be sealed up and mothballed as there are no immediate plans to repair or reactivate them, sources familiar with the plans have told Reuters.
— Reuters
WED, MAR 8 20235:21 AM EST
Russia faces a strategic dilemma along the front line, UK says
A Ukrainian serviceman stands at a fortified position at an undisclosed location next to the Vuhledar front line in Ukraine on March 7, 2023.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Russian forces likely face a dilemma over where they should focus their offensive efforts along the front line toward Vuhledar, a town to the south of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Wednesday.
“Until recently, the Russian command likely saw a breakthrough at Vuhledar as a key way to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in Ukraine’s lines,” the ministry said on Twitter.
“Russian planners are likely facing the dilemma of attempting another Vuhledar assault or supporting intense fighting further north near Bakhmut and Kremina,” it noted.
The ministry also commented on the public rift between the Russian Ministry of Defense and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group of mercenaries fighting in Donetsk.
It noted that, by releasing a video of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visiting troops in eastern Ukraine earlier this week, there is “a realistic possibility that this was partially in response to recent footage of the owner of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, visiting his fighters on the front line.”
“Wagner is in a high-profile dispute with the Russian Ministry of Defence and Shoigu is likely sensitive to being compared to Prigozhin. The only deployed Russian field commander shown in the video was Colonel General Rustam Muradov. It is notable that Muradov is responsible for the Vuhledar sector of Donetsk Oblast, where several assaults have failed in the last three months.”
— Holly Ellyatt
WED, MAR 8 20234:59 AM EST
Three reasons why Ukraine is fighting on in Bakhmut
Ukrainian servicemen fire a 105mm Howitzer towards Russian positions, near the city of Bakhmut, on March 4, 2023.
Aris Messinis | AFP | Getty Images
After seven months of fighting over the industrial city of Bakhmut in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, it’s not surprising that neither Ukraine nor Russia want to capitulate over its defense — or capture.
But now it looks increasingly likely that Russia could be gaining the upper hand. On Wednesday, Yevgeny Prigozhin,the leader of Russia’s mercenary forces fighting in Bakhmut, said that Wagner had taken full control of the eastern part of the city.
Despite its forces appearing vulnerable to encirclement, Ukraine vowed on Monday to continue defending the city and to send in reinforcements.
Both Russia and Ukraine have thrown masses of personnel into their bids to capture, and defend, Bakhmut, respectively, with both claiming to have inflicted hundreds of losses on each others’ forces on a daily basis.
Aside from atoning for these sacrifices with some kind of victory in Bakhmut, there are several other reasons why both sides have a reason to continue fighting until the bitter end, ranging from the symbolic to the militarily expedient.
WED, MAR 8 20233:55 AM EST
Russian mercenaries claim they control eastern Bakhmut
“Wagner PMC units have occupied the entire eastern part of Bakhmut. Everything east of the Bakhmutka River is completely under the control of the Wagner PMC,” Wagner’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was quoted as saying by Tass, citing comments made on Prigozhin’s Telegram channel. CNBC was unable to verify the claims.
Ukraine gave a military update Wednesday in which it noted that Ukraine had repelled over 100 attacks on the Donetsk region over the past day, including on Bakhmut, but said Russian forces were “continuing their unsuccessful offensive operations” in the area.
A repainted mural depicting the logo of Russia’s Wagner Group on a wall in Belgrade, Serbia, on Jan. 19, 2023.
Darko Vojinovic | AP
Russia sees the capture of Bakhmut, a city it refers to as “Artemovsk” or “Artyomovsk,” as a key strategic goal, as it looks to cut off Ukrainian supply routes in eastern Ukraine, but the battle for Bakhmut is a also symbolic one for the Wagner Group as it seeks to prove its credibility to Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
Prigozhin has had a long-running spat with defense officials in Moscow, criticizing its strategy in the war and, most recently, suggesting that the ministry had not responded to his request for urgent ammunition deliveries for his troops. Prigozhin suggested this could be because of “bureaucracy or betrayal.”
— Holly Ellyatt
TUE, MAR 7 20233:29 PM EST
State Department says Russia will not be able to alter perceptions of war in Ukraine by holding UN Security Council presidency
U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price holds a press briefing on Afghanistan at the State Department in Washington, U.S., August 16, 2021.
Kevin Lemarque | Reuters
State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters that Russia’s upcoming presidency of the U.N. Security Council will not impact global standing on the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.
Price said there will be no amount of “propaganda, misinformation or disinformation” that Russia peddles from the helm of the U.N. Security Council that will alter perceptions.
Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s permanent representative to the United Nations, urged the international forum earlier in the week to prohibit Russia from holding its scheduled one-month presidency on April 1 over the Security Council.
Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council, which is based in New York City and serves as the U.N. arm tasked with maintaining peace and security. Russia also holds veto power in the Security Council, which can hamper any decision-making in regard to supporting Ukraine.
— Amanda Macias
TUE, MAR 7 20232:59 PM EST
130 Ukrainian service members returned in latest prisoner release
116 Ukrainian servicemen pose for a photo after being released in new round of war prisoners exchange with Russia on February 04, 2023. Andrii Yermak, the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, said on March 7, 2023 that 130 additional Ukrainians were returned following Russian detention.
Ukrainian Presidency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Andrii Yermak, the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, said that 130 Ukrainians were returned following Russian detention.
Yermak said that 126 men and four women were released.
“These are soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, National Guardsmen, and border guards. Among them are 87 Mariupol defenders, 71 of whom are from Azovstal,” Yermak wrote on his official Telegram channel, according to an NBC News translation.
“Most of the people we bring back today have serious injuries,” he said, adding that all Ukrainians should work to take care of those returning from Russian imprisonment.
“I am proud of the entire team that worked long and hard on this exchange. Incredible feelings when our people are at home,” he added.
— Amanda Macias
TUE, MAR 7 20231:55 PM EST
Zelenskyy warns that Russian troops will push deeper into Ukraine if Bakhmut falls
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gestures as he speaks to media during their joint press conference with Prime Minister of Sweden following the talks in Kyiv on February 15, 2023.
Sergei Supinsky | AFP | Getty Images
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that Russian forces will push deeper into Ukraine if they seize control of the embattled eastern city of Bakhmut.
“We understand that after Bakhmut they could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, they could go to Sloviansk, it would be an open road for the Russians after Bakhmut to other towns in Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said in the interview, which is set to air on March 8 at 9 p.m. ET.
“That’s why our guys are standing there,” he added when asked about potentially retreating from the area.
“Russia needs some victory, a small victory, even by ruining everything in Bakhmut by killing every civilian there,” Zelenskyy said, referencing minimal gains by Russian troops against Ukrainian forces.
Zelenskyy said that if Russia is able to “put their little flag” in Bakhmut it would help “mobilize their society in order to create this idea they’re such a powerful army.”
— Amanda Macias
TUE, MAR 7 202312:44 PM EST
China has not yet provided Russia with weapons for the war in Ukraine, White House says
John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, answers questions during the daily press briefing at the White House in Washington, U.S., January 25, 2023.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
The White House said it has not yet seen China supply Russia with weapons for the war in Ukraine and declined to elaborate on potential U.S. retaliatory actions if Beijing decides to do so.
“China has a choice to make here,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said when asked by reporters about any potential weapons transfers.
Kirby said that additional sanctions measures would be a discussion on the table between U.S. President Joe Biden and European Commission Ursula von der Leyen during her visit to Washington this week but declined to speculate about China.
He said that the U.S. and its Western allies hope that China does “not make it any easier for Mr. Putin to kill innocent Ukrainians.”
— Amanda Macias
TUE, MAR 7 20235:10 AM EST
Russia’s Shoigu: Capture of Bakhmut will allow further offensives in Ukraine
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu attends an annual meeting of the Defence Ministry Board in Moscow, Russia, December 21, 2022.
Mikhail Klimentyev | Sputnik | Reuters
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that the seizure of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine would allow Russian forces to mount further offensive operations, Russian news agencies reported.
Shoigu also said the West was increasing its arms deliveries to Ukraine, but vowed they would not change the course of events on the battlefield.
— Reuters
TUE, MAR 7 20232:57 AM EST
Kyiv vows to fight on in Bakhmut, defying expectations of a withdrawal
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday that he had spoken to his army commanders about the situation in Bakhmut and said they’d insisted the city should be defended rather than abandoned.
Zelenskyy said in his nightly address that he had asked Ukraine’s ground forces commander, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, and the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, about their view on continuing to defend Bakhmut, saying the options were either “withdrawal or continuation of defense and reinforcement of the city.”
The president said “both generals replied: do not withdraw and reinforce. And this opinion was unanimously backed by the Staff. There were no other opinions. I told the Commander-in-Chief to find the appropriate forces to help the guys in Bakhmut.”
“There is no part of Ukraine about which one can say that it can be abandoned,” Zelenskyy noted.
Ukrainian servicemen load a 152 mm shell into a Msta-B howitzer to fire toward Russian positions, near the front-line town of Bakhmut on March 2, 2023.
Dimitar Dilkoff | AFP | Getty Images
Ukraine is keen to show its allies that it can fight on in Ukraine, although some analysis and reports from Bakhmut suggest some kind of withdrawal is taking place. And there are signs that its international partners would not view a tactical withdrawal from the city in a bad light in any case. On Monday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Bakhmut had more symbolic importance than strategic and operational value.
Defense analysts have noted, however, that Ukraine continuing to fight in Bakhmut has another added advantage, saying a significant number of Russian fighters have been brought into what has been described (by the head of Russia’s mercenary forces) as a “meat grinder.”
Zelenskyy said Monday that defending Bakhmut meant destroying more of Russia’s invading forces.
“We are destroying the occupier everywhere – wherever it yields results for Ukraine. Bakhmut has yielded and is yielding one of the greatest results during this war, during the entire battle for Donbas.”
Imagine the South China Sea: not as balmy waters dotted by palm-fringed islands, but covered in a sheet of ice. The deeper waters have cooled, too—not like the surface, but enough to alter the currrents that flow between Earth’s equator and its southern pole. In the ensuing ecological cataclysm, humans depend on seaweed for their survival.
That’s not the usual picture of post-nuclear apocalypse. Most popular fictions of the subject have focused on terrestrial impacts, and scientific research has shared that tendency. But factor in the ocean, suggest researchers whose simulations did just that, and humanity is looking less at a nuclear winter than what they call “a Nuclear Little Ice Age.”
One of those researchers is Owen Toon, a geophysicist at the University of Colorado Boulder. In the 1980s, Toon worked alongside Carl Sagan as part of the first generation of environmental scientists to model the planetary effects of nuclear warfare. The early climate models they used showed that multiple large detonations could generate enough smoke to wrap Earth in a veil so thick it would block out the sun, a scenario they famously dubbed “nuclear winter.”1
Outcomes such as unforeseen extinctions and shifts in migration patterns are almost a given.
Now, using more-advanced climate models to simulate the effects of United States-Russia and India-Pakistan nuclear conflicts, Toon and colleagues, led by the Louisiana State University oceanographer Cheryl S. Harrison, have provided the first detailed look at the impacts of nuclear war on the ocean. Their findings, published last year in the journal AGU Advances, describe a planet transformed even more profoundly than earlier simulations suggested.2
No matter who cracks open their arsenal first, the model begins with smoke. Even at the tame end of their scenarios,3with the nations using about one-quarter of the 400 to 500 warheads they’re expected to accumulate within the next several years, an India-Pakistan nuclear war would generate nearly 20 times the amount of smoke produced by the catastrophic Australian bushfires of 2019 and 2020. Those released a whopping 0.9 teragrams (Tg), or 900,000 tons, of carbon soot—the largest recorded amount to ever enter the atmosphere. At its worst, with charred cities pumping hot clouds into the sky, a conflict between the two countries could produce almost 47 Tg of smoke. And were the U.S. and Russia to engage, deploying roughly 100 bombs of equivalent power to the one dropped on Hiroshima, the estimated output would be a nearly incomprehensible 150 Tg of soot.4
In all cases, the smoke spreads fast. Within a week or two, a layer of smoke hovers above the entire planet. There’s less sunlight; everything starts to get just a tad colder. In the U.S.-Russia scenario, Earth cools an average of 7 degrees Celsius in just a few months. The global temperature decrease persists for at least a decade. Because water retains its heat longer than air, the ocean’s surface doesn’t reach its coolest until three to four years after detonations end, when ocean surface temperatures fall by an average of 6 degrees Celsius worldwide.
COLD WAR: In the aftermath of nuclear war, global sea surface temperatures would plummet. Colors in this image correspond to the degree of change expected after a large-scale conflict between the United States and Russia; the darkest blues correspond to a drop of 30 degrees Celsius. Illustration from: Harrison, C.S., et al. A new ocean state after nuclear war. AGU Advances 3, e2021AV000610 (2022).
The climate models paint a scenario that is roughly equivalent to a small asteroid hitting Earth. The one that eradicated the dinosaurs had many of the same effects, albeit to a larger degree. And, much like that infamous asteroid, a nuclear war causes ice to expand across much of Earth’s surface. Arctic sea ice doubles in thickness, and portions of the South China Sea and the Atlantic Ocean—predicted to cool by about 25 and 10 degrees Celsius respectively—could freeze as well.
Radical as those changes are, it’s what happens at depth that alters the ocean forever. With such dramatic cooling at the surface, the comparatively warmer waters of the deep begin to rise and mix with the layers above, disrupting the narrow temperature ranges and familiar current patterns that now sustain its life.
Tyler Rohr, a biogeochemist at the Australian Antarctic Partnership Program, was tasked with deducing what such extreme deep-sea churning and cooling means for marine life. He studies phytoplankton, the microscopic photosynthesizing organisms who are the foundation of oceanic food webs; as skies fill with soot, phytoplankton are immediately deprived of much of the sunlight they need to survive. Their populations fall by 50 percent in the months following the modeled U.S.-Russia conflict, and remain at least 20 percent lower for years. It’s difficult to predict exactly what that would do to marine ecosystems, but Rohr is confident that it would make parts of the ocean unrecognizable.
“Whenever you have a massive climate disturbance, the consequences are large in scale and time,” Rohr says. “There can be these really surprising mechanisms that can cause feedbacks that create unpredictable and unexpected outcomes even decades down the road from the initial disturbance.”
Outcomes such as unforeseen extinctions and shifts in migration patterns are almost a given. Among the predictions that Rohr and colleagues could make is that, 10 years after a worst-case-scenario nuclear war, the ocean would contain 20 percent fewer fish—and that’s without accounting for how declines in terrestrial food sources might lead to increased fishing, a shift they say is likely.
A nuclear war causes ice to expand across much of Earth’s surface.
Some of the researchers involved in the post-apocalyptic ocean study also modeled worldwide food output in the aftermath of a nuclear winter. According to their estimates, which were published last year in the journal Nature, the collapse in global calorie production following an India-Pakistan conflict could lead to 2 billion deaths; for a U.S.-Russia war, the toll swells to 5 billion.5 Facing that kind of nutritional scarcity, even a depauperate ocean would be a vital food source.
There is one food, however, that may be bolstered by nuclear cooling: seaweed. In certain tropical and subtropical areas, such as parts of the Sargasso Sea, the researchers found that seaweed could continue to flourish, even in these dire scenarios. Seaweed might even help sustain humanity while terrestrial food webs recovered and the ocean slowly came back to life.6
Ten years after the war a long period of semidarkness finally gives way to bright, sunlit days that more closely resemble a pre-detonation world. Meanwhile the cooling-induced upwelling of deep-sea waters has delivered a vast supply of the nutrients that phytoplankton consume. Add sunshine, and an explosion of life at the smallest level ensues.
By two decades after war, the ocean’s net primary productivity—the sum total of its biomass—settles into a new state, around 6 percent higher than pre-war levels. This bounty is not evenly distributed, though. Regional variation means that some areas won’t see much new life for thousands of years or more.
Toon and colleagues describe this as the ocean’s “recovery,” which is accurate in that the ocean’s productivity will, by some metrics, return to pre-war levels. But by the word’s other definition, the regaining of things lost, oceanic recovery after nuclear war is impossible.
Because of their place at the top of food chains, larger aquatic species are the most likely to be lost during a nuclear war’s immediate aquatic aftermath—and though a horde of phytoplankton may have the same biomass as a blue whale, it lacks just about everything else that makes the ocean’s biggest creature special.
A recovered ocean is still an unrecognizable ocean. And while evolution would yield new marine species, that would take exponentially more years than the simple recovery of biomass. There’s just no way to model something like that.
Lead image: Sergey Nivens / Shutterstock
References
1. Turco, R.P., Toon, O.B., Ackerman, T.P., Pollack, J.B., & Sagan, C. Nuclear winter: Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions. Science222, 1283-1292 (1983).
2. Harrison, C.S., et al. A new ocean state after nuclear war. AGU Advances3, e2021AV000610 (2022).
3. Toon, O.B., et al. Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe. Science Advances5 (2019).
4. Coupe, J., Bardeen, C.G., Robock, A., & Toon, O.B. Nuclear winter responses to nuclear war between the United States and Russia in the whole atmosphere community climate model version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model. JGR Atmospheres124, 8522-8543 (2019).
5. Xia, L., et al. Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection. Nature Food3, 586-596 (2022).
6. Yong, W.T.L., Thien, V.Y., Rupert, R., & Rodrigues, K.F. Seaweed: A potential climate change solution. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews159, 112222 (2022).
According to officials, Russian submarines have also been spotted more frequently in the Mediterranean and near the shores of the United States. This is besides the Russian preoccupation with the Ukraine war and the subsequent build-up of Russian forces and nuclear submarines in the Black Sea.
Michael Peterson, director of the Russia Maritime Studies Institute (RMSI), which researches the Russian military, said: “There are indications that “nuclear-powered submarines have been deploying off the coast of the United States and into the Mediterranean and elsewhere along Europe periphery.”
Peterson added that the Russian deployments resembled Soviet-style submarine tactics in the Cold War era.
This becomes more perceptible in light of the announcement made the Russian President Vladimir Putin while he oversaw the commissioning of a few vessels, including the Generalissimus Suvorov nuclear-powered submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles.
Putin said his country would build more nuclear-powered submarines, “ensuring Russia’s security for decades to come.” This is also compatible with the assessment that Russia has continued to work on expanding its nuclear submarine fleet.
According to military experts, the exact scale of Russian nuclear submarine deployment remains unclear, but it has certainly seen a massive uptick in the last two decades.
Russia has continued ramping up its submarine capability and has been conducting tests with its nuke-capable Belgorod submarine, which can launch Underwater Unmanned Vehicles (UUV).
The Russian Navy boasts the most diverse submarine fleets in the world. As a crucial component of its strategic deterrent, Moscow views some of these submarines as being able to launch ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads.
Ever since the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, the country has been relentlessly working on upgrading its submarine force. Particularly in the last several years, Moscow has developed numerous submarines that can reach the most strategic targets in the United States and continental Europe.
With an estimated 58 vessels, the Russian Navy oversees one of the world’s largest submarine fleets. However, these vessels can be deployed worldwide, alarming US Commanders and challenging the US Naval influence.
An alarm was also sounded by the director of US Northern Command and NORAD, US Air Force General Glen VanHerck, who issued a warning last October over the increasing number of nuclear-powered Severodvinsk-class submarines off the shores of the US. The Commander also warned that Russia posed the biggest threat to the nation.
“They just moved subs, their first [Severodvinsk submarine] into the Pacific,” VanHerck told the Association of the US Army Conference. “Another [Severodvinsk] is out in the Mediterranean right now, and another that’s out on its way into the Atlantic. That will be a persistent, proximate threat capable of carrying many land-attack cruise missiles that can threaten our homeland.”
A month before VanHerck’s comments, OSINT and naval analyst HI Sutton had claimed that Russian Navy forces had been bolstered in the Mediterranean. This could be significant given the region’s strategic importance in the US calculations. Further, the US has been attempting to reinforce its presence in the Mediterranean.
Russia’s Yasen-class submarine – Wikipedia
Further, Rear Adm. Michael Studeman, the Office of Naval Intelligence commander, highlighted the risk posed by Russia’s Severodvinsk SSGNs, or the Yasen-class as it is popularly known.
Studeman said, “Those subs are “very, very advanced,” have “multi-mission capabilities” and are increasingly active.
Russian submarines are also present in the Pacific and the Atlantic. Studeman said in his remarks that these submarines have started undertaking patrols in the Atlantic, holding the United States in danger in certain regions.
Thus, he added that tracking those submarines and their actions would be a dual-flank issue for the United States.
Earlier, a Russian military journal recently claimed that the US had “apparently” prepared plans to strike and neutralize Russia because of concerns it might be losing its global dominance.
To combat this presumable threat, the journal suggested that Moscow could develop a novel military strategy using nuclear weapons to deter potential American aggression. Ever since Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine, the use of nuclear weapons has become a recurrent discussion, with the nuclear threat never entirely off the table.
Russia has continued to venture its nuclear submarines into far seas despite a full-blown war being fought close to home. Although military observers believe the Ukraine war would slow the formidable Russian Navy down for a couple of years, the current deployments are alarming the Pentagon.
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