Why South Korea Will Nuke Up: Daniel 7

Why South Korea Could Build A Small Nuclear Weapons Arsenal

ByRobert Kelly

What Would a South Korean Nuclear Weapons Program Look Like?: In the last year, a gathering debate has arisen in South Korea about whether it should build nuclear weapons to counter North Korea’s nuclear weapons. North Korea’s relentless missile testing program this year has pushed forward this debate. If the Pyongyang regime conducts another nuclear test – its seventh – that too will accelerate the Southern discussion.

North Korea’s Nuclearization is Pushing the Same in South Korea

The country’s conservative party has already argued that South Korea should withdraw from the Nonproliferation Treaty, which bans South Korean nuclear weaponization if North Korea goes ahead with its seventh nuclear test. The debate is now so serious that the US ambassador to South Korea felt compelled to weigh in. In the fourteen years, I have lived in South Korea and taught international security, I have never seen as much discussion of the nuclear option as in the last year.

North Korea’s relentless march toward better, faster, and more powerful nukes and missiles is pushing South Korea further and further into a corner. Hawkish options which were once deemed too radical or destabilizing – such as airstrikes on North Korean missile sites or South Korea’s own nuclearization – are under discussion now. If South Korea reaches for these more extreme options, North Korea has only itself to blame. Its exorable nuclearization and missilization are the cause; South Korea has been a model member of the NPT. It clearly does not want nuclear weapons. It has long encouraged a non-nuclear peninsula. The North Koreans have said the same while nonetheless nuking up relentlessly. The shape of the South Korean response is now coming into view.

Mutually Assured Destruction

The primary purpose of a nuclear arsenal is deterrence. Nukes best serve to prevent one’s opponents from considering a preemptive nuclear strike. Critically, strategic nuclear deterrence does not end conventional warfare. The US and USSR/Russia have fought numerous proxy conflicts in the nuclear age – Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. But nuclear escalation is inhibited when parties can credibly threaten each other with assured destruction.

A primary justification for Southern nuclearization, then, is to check any North Korean notion that its nukes could be used coercively – as threats to compel compliance from South Korea. Russia has used its nuclear weapons in this way with reasonable success in the Ukraine War. Its oblique nuclear threats of escalation have inhibited an even more robust NATO intervention on Ukraine’s behalf. Were Russia solely a conventional power, NATO might have imposed a no-fly zone over Ukraine or sunk Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

To accomplish this basic deterrent task, South Korea would need a few dozen survivable warheads. ‘Survivable’ means that South Korea could absorb a nuclear first strike by North Korea and still retaliate with atomic arms. If both sides have such survivability, the incentives to strike first decline dramatically. The strategic situation becomes a stalemate of mutually assured destruction (MAD). The result is a cold peace. The ironic outcome of such powerful weapons is stability, as no player wants to take the huge risk of conflict.

Nuclear Weapons: What Does South Korea Need?

To achieve MAD, South Korea does not need a large arsenal. It does not tactical nuclear weapons for use on the battlefield, for example. Nor does it need the high-yield thermonuclear weapons the Americans and the Soviets developed through the Cold War. Nor does it need intercontinental ballistic missiles carrying multiple warheads. Indeed, it needs no more than fifty (probably even fewer) small warheads on platforms that could ride out a Northern first strike. A few submarines with nuclear missiles would be enough. South Korea does not need land-based missiles or bombers. Its arsenal is not intended to threaten China; it only needs to be extensive and diverse enough to deter the North.

This is a crucial point. Much of the resistance to Southern nuclearization stems from fears of a nuclear ‘cascade.’ North Korea’s spiraling, unchecked nuclear program might produce the same in South Korea and Japan. This action-reaction chain is possible, of course, but South Korea has strong incentives to be discipline, restrained, and transparent about its nuclearization.

Seoul does not need a large arsenal to deter North Korea. Its purpose is strictly defensive. It only needs a few dozen warheads on a few dozen missiles on a handful of submarines to achieve this. Its political purpose is to compensate for American alliance anxiety now that North Korea strike the US homeland. South Korean nukes serve to lessen allied tension, via ‘self-insurance,’ over the thorny question of US willingness to fight a nuclear war on Seoul’s behalf. They are, very obviously, not intended as offensive weapons nor as threats to China

North Korea Missiles

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This South Korean move would clearly be controversial. But it is important to note that this can be done in an open, public way, with clear explanations of Seoul’s (justifiable) reasons and with a minimal arsenal focused on one task. If North Korea and China do not like this outcome, let them finally negotiate peninsular arms control seriously after decades of gimmicks.

Expert Biography: Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; RoberEdwinKelly.com) is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.

Israeli extremists’ incursions into Al-Aqsa Mosque is dangerous escalation: Revelation 11

Israeli extremists’ incursions into Al-Aqsa Mosque is dangerous escalation, says Hamas spokesperson

 Hamas spokesperson Abdul Latif al-Qanoua confirmed that the extremist Israeli Rabbi Yehuda Glick’s incursion into the Al-Aqsa Mosque, accompanied by dozens of colonial settlers, and live streaming that constitute a dangerous escalation and incitement to wider incursions into it, invalidating the feelings of Muslims and provoking them.

Al-Qanou stressed that the continuation of such incursions into the Al-Aqsa Mosque necessitates continued presence of its defenders there.

He explained that herds of colonial settlers and Israeli extremists break into the Al-Aqsa Mosque on a daily basis in failed attempts to pass the occupation’s schemes and impose a fait accompli policy in its compounds.

A Closer Look At The Sixth Seal (Revelation 6:12)

A Look at the Tri-State’s Active Fault LineMonday, March 14, 2011
By Bob Hennelly
The Ramapo Fault is the longest fault in the Northeast that occasionally makes local headlines when minor tremors cause rock the Tri-State region. It begins in Pennsylvania, crosses the Delaware River and continues through Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Passaic and Bergen counties before crossing the Hudson River near Indian Point nuclear facility.
In the past, it has generated occasional activity that generated a 2.6 magnitude quake in New Jersey’s Peakpack/Gladstone area and 3.0 magnitude quake in Mendham.
But the New Jersey-New York region is relatively seismically stable according to Dr. Dave Robinson, Professor of Geography at Rutgers. Although it does have activity.
„There is occasional seismic activity in New Jersey,“ said Robinson. „There have been a few quakes locally that have been felt and done a little bit of damage over the time since colonial settlement — some chimneys knocked down in Manhattan with a quake back in the 18th century, but nothing of a significant magnitude.“
Robinson said the Ramapo has on occasion registered a measurable quake but has not caused damage: „The Ramapo fault is associated with geological activities back 200 million years ago, but it’s still a little creaky now and again,“ he said.
„More recently, in the 1970s and early 1980s, earthquake risk along the Ramapo Fault received attention because of its proximity to Indian Point,“ according to the New Jersey Geological Survey website.
Historically, critics of the Indian Point Nuclear facility in Westchester County, New York, did cite its proximity to the Ramapo fault line as a significant risk.
In 1884, according to the New Jersey Geological Survey website, the Rampao Fault was blamed for a 5.5 quake that toppled chimneys in New York City and New Jersey that was felt from Maine to Virginia.
„Subsequent investigations have shown the 1884 Earthquake epicenter was actually located in Brooklyn, New York, at least 25 miles from the Ramapo Fault,“ according to the New Jersey Geological Survey website.

China Extends Her Nuclear Horn: Daniel 7

China’s JL-3 nuclear missile has a range of up to 10,000 kilometers, putting the US within closer range. Photo: Twitter / Handout / SCMP

China making South China Sea a nuclear missile launchpad

US claims China has fielded JL-3 sub-launched ballistic missiles in maritime area, bringing mainland US within closer range

by Gabriel Honrada November 22, 2022

China is one step closer to turning the South China Sea into a sanctuary for its nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), a move that would put the continental United States within range of its JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from the semi-enclosed and hotly contested body of water.

On November 18, US Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo acknowledged to military reporters in Washington that China has fielded its JL-3 SLBM on its six Type 094 SSBNs, giving it the capability to hit the US from waters closer to America’s shore.

Paparo emphasized that these SSBNs were built to threaten the US and that the US Navy is keeping close track of them.

A year ago, the Pentagon said that the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) would gain the capability to target the US from China’s coastal waters, with Paparo declining to comment when asked if China’s Type 094 SSBNs have conducted deterrence patrols close to Hawaii.

The JL-3 has an estimated range of more than 10,000 kilometers, which allows China to target the US “from a protected bastion in the South China Sea,” US Strategic Command commander Admiral Charles Richard told the US Senate Armed Services Committee this March according to a US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report.

If true, the JL-3 is a significant improvement over the previous missile, the JL-2, which has a range of 7,200 kilometers. According to CRS, that gives China’s Type 094 SSBNs the ability to attack Alaska from the Bohai Sea. CRS notes that to strike the US West Coast, JL-2-equipped Type 094 SSBNs would have to be in waters east of Hawaii due to range limitations.China’s JL-2’s on display. Image: Twitter

In response to the reports, China’s state mouthpiece Global Times last week slammed the US as having ulterior motives by hyping the “China Threat” to seek a greater presence in the Asia-Pacific in the form of more anti-submarine forces and its own Columbia-class SSBNs. It also claimed that spiking threat perceptions of China was a way for the US military to get more funding.

Global Times noted that China has yet to announce the commissioning of the JL-3. Although China carried out a JL-3 test launch in June 2019, the scheduled tests were standard and not aimed at any country or target, the Global Times report said.

It emphasized that China maintains a defensive national defense policy and a military strategy of “active defense.” The Global Times report also noted that while China has no plans to expand significantly its nuclear arsenal, it will continue to modernize it amid the changing strategic security environment.

China’s nuclear doctrine relies on a robust SSBN fleet. In a 2016 Carnegie Endowment for Regional Peace report, Liping Xia notes that a no-first-use policy, minimum nuclear deterrence, counter-nuclear coercion and limited nuclear deterrence are critical features of China’s nuclear doctrine.

Xia notes that China’s SSBNs are essential to its second-strike nuclear capability and with fleet upgrades allow China to be more confident of its no-first-use policy.

Echoing this view, Fiona Cunningham notes in a 2020 article for The Strategist that China’s nuclear force structure is optimized to ride out an adversary’s first strike and retaliate against strategic targets rather than credibly threaten the first use of nuclear weapons.

Cunningham mentions that although Chinese leaders have debated changing China’s longstanding no-first-use nuclear policy from time to time, there is no sign that China plans to change it anytime soon.

The JL-3’s deployment will mark a significant upgrade to the survivability of China’s undersea deterrent. A 2018 Carnegie Endowment for Regional Peace report notes that the JL-2 SLBM’s limited range means it cannot reach the US if launched from Chinese coastal waters. The report says that China’s SSBNs would need to sail into the Western Pacific to hit the US mainland with the missile.

A 2015 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report notes that the US and its allies could exploit chokepoints including the Miyako Strait, Bashi Channel and the Sulu Sea to track China’s SSBNs on their way to the Pacific Ocean.

These vulnerabilities go against the basic philosophy of an SSBN, which according to the CSIS report is to hide in the ocean’s vastness so that it would be impossible to detect or predict its location.China’s Type 094A nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. Photo: Twitter / The National Interest

As such, the JL-3’s introduction may allow China to implement a South China Sea “bastion strategy,” obviating the need for its SSBNs to sail into the Pacific to launch their SLBMs. In this strategy, China would use the South China Sea as a sanctuary for its SSBNs, with the area protected by land-based aircraft and missiles, naval forces and fortified islands.

The South China Sea’s semi-enclosed configuration and proximity to China’s shores make it an ideal area to implement the strategy, with China’s large submarine base in Hainan showing that it is moving in that direction with its SSBN fleet.

Logistically speaking, it would be much easier for China to sustain short-range SSBN than open-water patrols with command and control facilities stationed in nearby waters.

As the South China Sea is straddled by major sea lanes of communication (SLOCs), the underwater noise environment makes it more difficult to detect China’s SSBNs, allowing them to hide amid the area’s unique underwater noise, thermal and acoustic features.

Iranian Soccer Players Refuse to Sing National Anthem at World Cup

Iranian Soccer Players Refuse to Sing National Anthem at World Cup

Published Nov. 21, 2022 8:46AM ET

The Iranian national soccer team refused to sing their country’s national anthem before their first game of the World Cup in Qatar on Monday in an apparent sign of solidarity with protesters at home. All 11 starting players in the team playing against England remained mute as their fans at the Khalifa International Stadium booed and jeered while others wept and applauded. Iranhas been roiled by months of protests which began when a young woman, Mahsa Amini, died in the custody of so-called “morality police” after being detained for not wearing her hijab correctly. Violent regime crackdowns on street demonstrations have seen hundreds killed and over 15,000 arrested, with at least one unnamed “rioter” being sentenced to death for his part in the protests.

The Iranian Horn Strikes Iraq: Daniel 8

Iranian Missiles Strike Kurdish Opposition Bases in Iraq, Exiled Group Says – Iraq – Haaretz.com

Nov 21, 2022

Iranian missiles and drones struck an Iranian Kurdish opposition group’s bases in northern Iraq late Sunday night, the faction said.

The Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, a Kurdish Iranian group exiled in Iraq, said in a statement that Iranian surface-to-surface missiles and drones hit its bases and adjacent refugee camps in Koya and Jejnikan. The group also asserted that the strikes had hit a hospital in Koya.

There were no immediate reports of casualties.

The website of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard Monday confirmed a “new round” of missile and drone attacks on “separatist and terrorist” groups in Iraq’s north.

Some Kurdish groups have been engaged in a low-intensity conflict with Tehran since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution, with many members seeking political exile in neighboring Iraq where they have established bases.

Iran alleges that these groups are inciting anti-government protests in Iran and smuggling weapons into the country, which Kurdish groups have denied.

Tehran has periodically launched airstrikes against the Kurdish groups’ bases in Iraq. During a visit to Baghdad last week, Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani threatened Iraq with a ground military operation in the country’s north if the Iraqi army does not fortify the countries’ shared border against Kurdish opposition groups, Iraqi and Kurdish officials said.

The U.S. condemned the latest Iranian strikes. Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, who heads U.S. Central Command, said in a statement: “Such indiscriminate and illegal attacks place civilians at risk, violate Iraqi sovereignty, and jeopardize the hard-fought security and stability of Iraq and the Middle East.”

Sunday’s Iranian strikes in northern Iraq come a day after Turkey launched deadly airstrikes over northern regions of Syria and Iraq, targeting Kurdish groups that Ankara holds responsible for last week’s bomb attack in Istanbul.

Palestinians to stand steadfast against Israeli settlers’ attacks outside the Temple Walls: Revelation 11

Palestinians to stand steadfast against Israeli settlers’ attacks, says Hamas spokesperson 

Nov 20, 2022

Hamas spokesperson Abdul Latif al-Qanoua said that the colonial Israeli settlers’ attacks against the Palestinian citizens of the occupied West Bank city of Hebron, the desecration of the Al-Ibrahimi Mosque, and the attempts to Judaise the city will be resisted with all possible means.

Al-Qanoua added that the Israeli occupation’s endeavours to expand colonial settlements in Hebron and increase the pace of attacks against the Palestinian people aiming at changing the features of the city and breaking the will of its steadfast people are bound to fail.http://andrewtheprophet.com

He called on the Palestinian people in the occupied West Bank to support the citizens of Hebron in their struggle to defend their city and their lands against the occupation forces and colonial settlers’ attacks.

Iranian Horn takes new nuclear measures: Daniel 8

Iran takes new nuclear measures in response to IAEA resolution

  • By Al Mayadeen English 

    Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says the anti-Iran IAEA resolution has political goals and is an attempt to increase pressure on Iran.

      Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said Iran took on Sunday several measures in the Natanz and Fordow uranium enrichment facilities in response to the anti-Iran resolution passed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors, which was submitted by the US and the three European countries, the UK, France, and Germany.Z

      Kanaani considered that the IAEA resolution has political goals and is an attempt to increase pressure on Iran by the United States and the three European countries.

      The Iranian Spokesperson highlighted that the resolution comes despite Iran having a peaceful nuclear program that is the most transparent in the world, noting that his country has preceded and warned the Western parties of the consequences of this illogical and destructive act.

      Kanaani said the use of international organizations as a tool against independent countries has become the norm in the foreign policy of Western countries, stressing that Iran will not succumb to pressure and will continue its peaceful nuclear program in accordance with its needs, rights, and obligations under international treaties.

      Earlier in the day, AEOI head Mohammad Eslami condemned the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors’ “unconstructive” decision to pass a resolution against Iran, warning it will elicit a strong response from Tehran.

      The IAEA passed a resolution last Thursday urging Iran to comply with the probe involving the alleged find of uranium traces at three undeclared sites.

      This is the second time that the nuclear watchdog is carrying out a motion of this kind against Iran – the last one which took place in June this year involved a motion of censure against Tehran’s alleged obstruction of inspectors.

      The resolution, which states it is “essential and urgent” for Iran to “act to fulfill its legal obligations” and was brought by the US, the UK, France, and Germany, was voted by 26 countries in favor, two against, five abstained, and two countries were absent.

      The two countries who voted against the resolution are China and Russia.

      Overnight blasts near Ukraine nuclear plant are ‘playing with fire!’ – UN nuclear chief

      The Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Ukraine.

      Ⓒ IAEA

      The Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Ukraine.

      Powerful explosions shook the area of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), “abruptly ending a period of relative calm” at the facility, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog agency said on Sunday.

      In a statement issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said that that blasts yesterday evening and again this morning further underlined “the urgent need for measures to help prevent a nuclear accident there”.

      “As I have said many times before, you’re playing with fire!”.

      Tweet URL

      Powerful explosions shook area of #Zaporizhzhya NPP last night & today. IAEA experts at #ZNPP report a dozen+ blasts from apparent shelling & some site buildings, systems & equipment damaged, but none so far critical for nuclear safety & security. https://t.co/0nEY45BLAg https://t.co/FgG6erL0IV

      IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️

      iaeaorg

      November 20, 2022

      Renewed shelling

      In what appeared to be renewed shelling near and at the site of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, IAEA experts on the ground reported that more than a dozen blasts were heard within a short period of time in the morning local time.

      The IAEA team were also able to see some of the explosions from their windows.

      The news from our team yesterday and this morning is extremely disturbing”, said Mr. Grossi.

      Citing information provided by plant management, the IAEA team said there had been damage to some buildings, systems, and equipment at the site, but noncritical for nuclear safety and security.

      “Explosions occurred at the site of this major nuclear power plant, which is completely unacceptable”, he added. “Whoever is behind this, it must stop immediately”.

      According to news reports, Russian and Ukrainian nuclear energy authorities each blamed the other side’s forces for the strikes – triggering fears of a serious nuclear accident. So far, there have been no reports of any radiation leaks at the Russian-occupied plant.

      Nuclear-free zone

      The IAEA experts said that there were no reported casualties, and they are in close contact with site management.

      Meanwhile as they continue to assess and relay updates on the situation, the IAEA chief renewed his urgent appeal that both sides of the conflict agree to implement a nuclear safety and security zone around the ZNPP as soon as possible.

      In recent months, he has been engaging in intense consultations with Ukraine and Russia on establishing a zone – but, so far, no agreement has been reached.

      “I’m not giving up until this zone has become a reality”, said Mr. Grossi. “As the ongoing apparent shelling demonstrates, it is needed more than ever”.

      Gambling with lives

      Even though there was no direct impact on key nuclear safety and security systems at the plant, the senior UN official said, “the shelling came dangerously close to them”.

      “We are talking metres, not kilometres. Whoever is shelling at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, is taking huge risks and gambling with many people’s lives”.

      The IAEA team of experts plan to conduct an assessment of the shelling impact on the site tomorrow.

      East Coast Quakes and the Sixth Seal: Revelation 6

      Items lie on the floor of a grocery store after an earthquake on Sunday, August 9, 2020 in North Carolina.

      East Coast Quakes: What to Know About the Tremors Below

      By Meteorologist Dominic Ramunni Nationwide PUBLISHED 7:13 PM ET Aug. 11, 2020 PUBLISHED 7:13 PM EDT Aug. 11, 2020

      People across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic were shaken, literally, on a Sunday morning as a magnitude 5.1 earthquake struck in North Carolina on August 9, 2020.

      Centered in Sparta, NC, the tremor knocked groceries off shelves and left many wondering just when the next big one could strike.

      Fault Lines

      Compared to the West Coast, there are far fewer fault lines in the East. This is why earthquakes in the East are relatively uncommon and weaker in magnitude.

      That said, earthquakes still occur in the East.

      According to Spectrum News Meteorologist Matthew East, “Earthquakes have occurred in every eastern U.S. state, and a majority of states have recorded damaging earthquakes. However, they are pretty rare. For instance, the Sparta earthquake Sunday was the strongest in North Carolina in over 100 years.”

      While nowhere near to the extent of the West Coast, damaging earthquakes can and do affect much of the eastern half of the country.

      For example, across the Tennesse River Valley lies the New Madrid Fault Line. While much smaller in size than those found farther west, the fault has managed to produce several earthquakes over magnitude 7.0 in the last couple hundred years.

      In 1886, an estimated magnitude 7.0 struck Charleston, South Carolina along a previously unknown seismic zone. Nearly the entire town had to be rebuilt.

      Vulnerabilities

      The eastern half of the U.S. has its own set of vulnerabilities from earthquakes.

      Seismic waves actually travel farther in the East as opposed to the West Coast. This is because the rocks that make up the East are tens, if not hundreds, of millions of years older than in the West.

      These older rocks have had much more time to bond together with other rocks under the tremendous pressure of Earth’s crust. This allows seismic energy to transfer between rocks more efficiently during an earthquake, causing the shaking to be felt much further.

      This is why, during the latest quake in North Carolina, impacts were felt not just across the state, but reports of shaking came as far as Atlanta, Georgia, nearly 300 miles away.

      Reports of shaking from different earthquakes of similar magnitude.

      Quakes in the East can also be more damaging to infrastructure than in the West. This is generally due to the older buildings found east. Architects in the early-to-mid 1900s simply were not accounting for earthquakes in their designs for cities along the East Coast.

      When a magnitude 5.8 earthquake struck Virginia in 2011, not only were numerous historical monuments in Washington, D.C. damaged, shaking was reported up and down the East Coast with tremors even reported in Canada.

      Unpredictable

      There is no way to accurately predict when or where an earthquake may strike.

      Some quakes will have a smaller earthquake precede the primary one. This is called a foreshock.

      The problem is though, it’s difficult to say whether the foreshock is in fact a foreshock and not the primary earthquake. Only time will tell the difference.

      The United State Geological Survey (USGS) is experimenting with early warning detection systems in the West Coast.

      While this system cannot predict earthquakes before they occur, they can provide warning up to tens of seconds in advance that shaking is imminent. This could provide just enough time to find a secure location before the tremors begin.

      Much like hurricanes, tornadoes, or snowstorms, earthquakes are a natural occuring phenomenon that we can prepare for.

      The USGS provides an abundance of resources on how to best stay safe when the earth starts to quake.