The Sixth Seal Will be in New York (Revelation 6:12)

Earthquakes Can Happen in More Places Than You Think

By Simon Worrall


Half a million earthquakes occur worldwide each year, according to an estimate by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Most are too small to rattle your teacup. But some, like the 2011 quake off the coast of Japan or last year’s disaster in Italy, can level high-rise buildings, knock out power, water and communications, and leave a lifelong legacy of trauma for those unlucky enough to be caught in them.

In the U.S., the focus is on California’s San Andreas fault, which geologists suggest has a nearly one-in-five chance of causing a major earthquake in the next three decades. But it’s not just the faults we know about that should concern us, says Kathryn Miles, author of Quakeland: On the Road to America’s Next Devastating Earthquake. As she explained when National Geographic caught up with her at her home in Portland, Maine, there’s a much larger number of faults we don’t know about—and fracking is only adding to the risks.

When it comes to earthquakes, there is really only one question everyone wants to know: When will the big one hit California?

That’s the question seismologists wish they could answer, too! One of the most shocking and surprising things for me is just how little is actually known about this natural phenomenon. The geophysicists, seismologists, and emergency managers that I spoke with are the first to say, “We just don’t know!”

What we can say is that it is relatively certain that a major earthquake will happen in California in our lifetime. We don’t know where or when. An earthquake happening east of San Diego out in the desert is going to have hugely different effects than that same earthquake happening in, say, Los Angeles. They’re both possible, both likely, but we just don’t know.

One of the things that’s important to understand about San Andreas is that it’s a fault zone. As laypeople we tend to think about it as this single crack that runs through California and if it cracks enough it’s going to dump the state into the ocean. But that’s not what’s happening here. San Andreas is a huge fault zone, which goes through very different types of geological features. As a result, very different types of earthquakes can happen in different places.

There are other places around the country that are also well overdue for an earthquake. New York City has historically had a moderate earthquake approximately every 100 years. If that is to be trusted, any moment now there will be another one, which will be devastating for that city.

As Charles Richter, inventor of the Richter Scale, famously said, “Only fools, liars and charlatans predict earthquakes.” Why are earthquakes so hard to predict? After all, we have sent rockets into space and plumbed the depths of the ocean.

You’re right: We know far more about distant galaxies than we do about the inner workings of our planet. The problem is that seismologists can’t study an earthquake because they don’t know when or where it’s going to happen. It could happen six miles underground or six miles under the ocean, in which case they can’t even witness it. They can go back and do forensic, post-mortem work. But we still don’t know where most faults lie. We only know where a fault is after an earthquake has occurred. If you look at the last 100 years of major earthquakes in the U.S., they’ve all happened on faults we didn’t even know existed.

Earthquakes 101

Earthquakes are unpredictable and can strike with enough force to bring buildings down. Find out what causes earthquakes, why they’re so deadly, and what’s being done to help buildings sustain their hits.

Fracking is a relatively new industry. Many people believe that it can cause what are known as induced earthquakes. What’s the scientific consensus?

The scientific consensus is that a practice known as wastewater injection undeniably causes earthquakes when the geological features are conducive. In the fracking process, water and lubricants are injected into the earth to split open the rock, so oil and natural gas can be retrieved. As this happens, wastewater is also retrieved and brought back to the surface.

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Different states deal with this in different ways. Some states, like Pennsylvania, favor letting the wastewater settle in aboveground pools, which can cause run-off contamination of drinking supplies. Other states, like Oklahoma, have chosen to re-inject the water into the ground. And what we’re seeing in Oklahoma is that this injection is enough to shift the pressure inside the earth’s core, so that daily earthquakes are happening in communities like Stillwater. As our technology improves, and both our ability and need to extract more resources from the earth increases, our risk of causing earthquakes will also rise exponentially.

After Fukushima, the idea of storing nuclear waste underground cannot be guaranteed to be safe. Yet President Trump has recently green-lighted new funds for the Yucca Mountain site in Nevada. Is that wise?

The issue with Fukushima was not about underground nuclear storage but it is relevant. The Tohoku earthquake, off the coast of Japan, was a massive, 9.0 earthquake—so big that it shifted the axis of the earth and moved the entire island of Japan some eight centimeters! It also created a series of tsunamis, which swamped the Fukushima nuclear power plant to a degree the designers did not believe was possible.

Here in the U.S., we have nuclear plants that are also potentially vulnerable to earthquakes and tsunamis, above all on the East Coast, like Pilgrim Nuclear, south of Boston, or Indian Point, north of New York City. Both of these have been deemed by the USGS to have an unacceptable level of seismic risk. [Both are scheduled to close in the next few years.]

Yucca Mountain is meant to address our need to store the huge amounts of nuclear waste that have been accumulating for more than 40 years. Problem number one is getting it out of these plants. We are going to have to somehow truck or train these spent fuel rods from, say, Boston, to a place like Yucca Mountain, in Nevada. On the way it will have to go through multiple earthquake zones, including New Madrid, which is widely considered to be one of the country’s most dangerous earthquake zones.

Yucca Mountain itself has had seismic activity. Ultimately, there’s no great place to put nuclear waste—and there’s no guarantee that where we do put it is going to be safe.

The psychological and emotional effects of an earthquake are especially harrowing. Why is that?

This is a fascinating and newly emerging subfield within psychology, which looks at the effects of natural disasters on both our individual and collective psyches. Whenever you experience significant trauma, you’re going to see a huge increase in PTSD, anxiety, depression, suicide, and even violent behaviors.

What seems to make earthquakes particularly pernicious is the surprise factor. A tornado will usually give people a few minutes, if not longer, to prepare; same thing with hurricanes. But that doesn’t happen with an earthquake. There is nothing but profound surprise. And the idea that the bedrock we walk and sleep upon can somehow become liquid and mobile seems to be really difficult for us to get our heads around.

Psychologists think that there are two things happening. One is a PTSD-type loop where our brain replays the trauma again and again, manifesting itself in dreams or panic attacks during the day. But there also appears to be a physiological effect as well as a psychological one. If your readers have ever been at sea for some time and then get off the ship and try to walk on dry land, they know they will look like drunkards. [Laughs] The reason for this is that the inner ear has habituated itself to the motion of the ship. We think the inner ear does something similar in the case of earthquakes, in an attempt to make sense of this strange, jarring movement.

After the Abruzzo quake in Italy, seven seismologists were actually tried and sentenced to six years in jail for failing to predict the disaster. Wouldn’t a similar threat help improve the prediction skills of American seismologists?

[Laughs] The scientific community was uniform in denouncing that action by the Italian government because, right now, earthquakes are impossible to predict. But the question of culpability is an important one. To what degree do we want to hold anyone responsible? Do we want to hold the local meteorologist responsible if he gets the weather forecast wrong? [Laughs]

What scientists say—and I don’t think this is a dodge on their parts—is, “Predicting earthquakes is the Holy Grail; it’s not going to happen in our lifetime. It may never happen.” What we can do is work on early warning systems, where we can at least give people 30 or 90 seconds to make a few quick decisive moves that could well save your life. We have failed to do that. But Mexico has had one in place for years!

There is some evidence that animals can predict earthquakes. Is there any truth to these theories?

All we know right now is anecdotal information because this is so hard to test for. We don’t know where the next earthquake is going to be so we can’t necessarily set up cameras and observe the animals there. So we have to rely on these anecdotal reports, say, of reptiles coming out of the ground prior to a quake. The one thing that was recorded here in the U.S. recently was that in the seconds before an earthquake in Oklahoma huge flocks of birds took flight. Was that coincidence? Related? We can’t draw that correlation yet.

One of the fascinating new approaches to prediction is the MyQuake app. Tell us how it works—and why it could be an especially good solution for Third World countries.

The USGS desperately wants to have it funded. The reluctance appears to be from Congress. A consortium of universities, in conjunction with the USGS, has been working on some fascinating tools. One is a dense network of seismographs that feed into a mainframe computer, which can take all the information and within nanoseconds understand that an earthquake is starting.

MyQuake is an app where you can get up to date information on what’s happening around the world. What’s fascinating is that our phones can also serve as seismographs. The same technology that knows which way your phone is facing, and whether it should show us an image in portrait or landscape, registers other kinds of movement. Scientists at UC Berkeley are looking to see if they can crowd source that information so that in places where we don’t have a lot of seismographs or measuring instruments, like New York City or Chicago or developing countries like Nepal, we can use smart phones both to record quakes and to send out early warning notices to people.

You traveled all over the U.S. for your research. Did you return home feeling safer?

I do not feel safer in the sense that I had no idea just how much risk regions of this country face on a daily basis when it comes to seismic hazards. We tend to think of this as a West Coast problem but it’s not! It’s a New York, Memphis, Seattle, or Phoenix problem. Nearly every major urban center in this country is at risk of a measurable earthquake.

What I do feel safer about is knowing what I can do as an individual. I hope that is a major take-home message for people who read the book. There are so many things we should be doing as individuals, family members, or communities to minimize this risk: simple things from having a go-bag and an emergency plan amongst the family to larger things like building codes.

We know that a major earthquake is going to happen. It’s probably going to knock out our communications lines. Phones aren’t going to work, Wi-Fi is going to go down, first responders are not going to be able to get to people for quite some time. So it is beholden on all of us to make sure we can survive until help can get to us.

This interview was edited for length and clarity.

Russia Horn’s Modernized Nuclear Weapons: Daniel 7

Putin: Modern weapons make up 91% of Russian nuclear triad

Putin: Modern weapons make up 91% of Russian nuclear triad

Russia will continue to improve combat readiness of its nuclear triad, which is ‘main guarantor’ of country’s sovereignty, says President Putin

Elena Teslova   |21.12.2022

Modern weapons make up 91% of Russia’s nuclear triad, and work continues on putting into service more of the latest weapons, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday, in remarks certain to be viewed by Western capitals as a veiled warning.

Speaking at a meeting with the Russian Defense Ministry Board in Moscow, Putin said the potential of all NATO countries is being used against Russia – in a likely reference to the 10-month-old Ukraine war – and so in the face of that threat, the country should maintain its armed forces at top combat readiness.

The rearmament of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces with hypersonic Avangard systems continues, the super-heavy Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be put into service in early January next year, and the Admiral Gorshkov class frigate will start combat duty carrying Zircon sea-based hypersonic missiles, he said.

“We will continue to maintain combat readiness and improve the combat readiness of the nuclear triad. This is the main guarantor of preserving our sovereignty and territorial integrity, strategic parity, and overall balance of power in the world,” Putin stressed.

Putin said the need to improve Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is an “urgent task,” including strategic and reconnaissance-strike ones, as well as methods of their application and to use them in all branches of the army.

“The experience of a special military operation has shown that the use of drones has become almost ubiquitous, and such an arsenal of means should be in combat squads, platoons, companies and battalions. The target should be detected as quickly as possible and the information for striking should be transmitted in real time,” he said.

Drones should be interconnected, integrated into a single intelligence network and should have secure communication channels with headquarters and commanders. Every fighter should be able to receive information transmitted from drones, he said.

The president emphasized that there are no funding restrictions when it comes to the needs of the Russian army and the government and the country will provide whatever the armed forces ask for.

Putin said Russia’s strength is that it is one of the few countries in the world that is completely self-sufficient in the military domain and that it will continue to unlock this potential but will not repeat “mistakes of the past” and militarize its economy.

Concluding his speech, he said: “We’ve always considered the Ukrainian people our brothers. What is happening now – our common tragedy — is the result of efforts of other countries to break apart the Russian world.”

For his part, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu accused the US of pumping Ukraine with weapons, training its soldiers, and waging a sanction and information war against Russia.

He claimed that Ukraine’s leadership uses prohibited methods against Russia such as nuclear blackmail, terrorist attacks, contract killings and the shelling of civilian areas with heavy weapons.

“Of particular concern is the buildup of NATO’s advanced presence near the borders of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, as well as the West’s interest in prolonging the hostilities in Ukraine as much as possible to further weaken our country,” he said.

NATO specialists work in the war zone and over 500 US and NATO satellites are working in Ukraine’s interests, with 70 of them military and the rest double-purpose, he added.

The US and its allies are spending considerable amounts of funds on information and psychological warfare against Russia and its allies, and at Washington’s command, Western media publishes thousands of fake news items daily, he said.

According to Shoygu, 27 countries have already spent $97 billion on arms supplies to Ukraine.

Russia is always open for constructive peace talks, but as there is no willingness from the other side, it will continue to achieve its set tasks, Shoygu said.

Shoygu added that Moscow takes the nuclear threat seriously and that its strategic nuclear forces have trained a response strike to an “enemy” nuclear attack.

At the same time, he said, the Defense Ministry continues international cooperation with the armed forces of 109 countries in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.

Among the priority tasks for 2023, Shoygu listed continuing the “special operation” until its goals are “fully fulfilled,” supporting peace and stability in Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh and increasing the armed forces from the current 1.15 million combat personnel to 1.5 million.

The Russian and Chinese Nuclear Threat: Daniel 7

Xi Putin Russia China

Russia, China threat ‘alarming’: Foreign policy expert

The Russia-Ukraine war is ‘much more significant’ than the Biden administration realizes, Mary Kissel argues

By Kayla Bailey FOXBusiness

Russia-Ukraine war is not simply a ‘bilateral fight’: Mary Kissel

Mary Kissel, former senior adviser to State Secretary Mike Pompeo, weighs in on Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s decision to meet with President Biden before Congress on ‘Mornings with Maria.’ 

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits the White House, foreign policy expert Mary Kissel discussed the “alarming” threat of China and Russia’s relationship and warned the U.S. should “pay attention.” 

“Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, is an expansionist power with a massive nuclear capability that has invaded its neighbors over a series of years and is using some very loose rhetoric about using those nuclear weapons. This is an important fight,” Mary Kissel, former senior adviser to State Secretary Mike Pompeo, said on “Mornings with Maria.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, June 5, 2019. ( REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina/Pool / Reuters Photos)

Her comments come as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with President Biden at the White House on Wednesday, a consultation that is intended to bolster the United States’ alliance with Ukraine. The Ukrainian President plans to speak in front of Congress as they prepare to send an additional$45 billion in money as a part of the planned omnibus bill. 

“It also shows the depth of the alarm that President Zelenskyy is feeling, given some of the rhetoric that’s coming out of Capitol Hill. Because, let’s face it, without U.S. support, whether it’s on the intelligence side or the kinds of training or the military equipment that we’re providing, we are the lifeline for the Ukrainian army, along with our partners,” Kissel said Wednesday.

“And so I think by coming to the United States, his first trip since the war began, he’s showing just how important that that support is, and he’s trying to shore it up.”

The Biden administration’s decision to send more military aid does not come without political pushback. Many critics are questioning the bill, but Kissel argues that this war expands much farther than Russia and Ukraine, saying that there is a Russia, China, and Iran “condominium” forming.

“[Ukraine is] not just fighting Russia. There is a Russia, China, Iran condominium that is forming here. So this is not simply a bilateral fight. You have the Iranians supplying drones to the Russians. You have the Chinese doing exercises, naval exercises with the Russians,” the foreign policy expert continued. 

“And meanwhile, communist China is showing, just by sheer numbers of its military development, what its aggressive intentions are. So I think when we talk about Zelenskyy’s trip, it’s very important to put it in that broader context, because this isn’t just a fight between the Ukrainians in the Russians. I think it’s much more significant than that.”

Former Secretary of State Pompeo senior advisor Mary Kissel reacts to Xi Jinping meeting with the Saudi crown prince, telling ‘Mornings with Maria’ this is a ‘significant strategic move by China.’

Bolstering Kissel’s claim that the Russia-Ukraine war is a unilateral conflict,Japan announced an increase in its defense budget as a response to China and Russia commencing live fire joint naval exercises. Japan’s decision to double their defense spending is an attempt to establish “aggressive footing” before China takes a page out of Putin’s playbook.

“Japan has had decades of essentially pacifist policies in place. They’ve stepped back and said, we’re going to not just double defense spending, we’re going to buy Tomahawk missiles, we’re going to buy jet fighters. We are going essentially on a very aggressive footing because we look over the water and we see what communist China is doing. And it’s not just these joint exercises with Russia… you can just go down the list,” Kissel continued.

The Buildup of the Asian Nuclear Horns: Daniel 7




DECEMBER 22, 2022


Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia. Are Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling, North Korea’s advancing capabilities, and China’s nuclear modernization program likely to spur additional nuclear proliferation? How satisfied are South Korea and Japan with current U.S. nuclear extended deterrence guarantees? And what should policymakers in Washington do in response to questions about the U.S. nuclear umbrella? In their last show of 2022, Chris says goodbye to Twitter (at least for now). Melanie asks for a more serious debate about immigration. And Zack commends the work and collegiality of the think tank community.

Episode Reading: 

Image: China Mil (Photo by Xu Yu)

The Revenge of the Antichrist: Revelation 13

Muqtada al-Sadr’s revenge.. Why could Iran be the real loser in the Iraqi Shiite conflict?

9/14/2022, 8:39:13 AM

The American magazine Foreign Affairs published an article that dealt with criticism and analysis of the political positions of the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, and his attempts to contain Iranian influence in Iraq, and to impose his control over power-sharing arrangements.

The American magazine Foreign Affairsin which its writer criticized and analyzed the political positions of the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, and his attempts to contain Iranian influence in Iraq, and to impose his control over the power-sharing arrangements in the country.

New York University associate journalism professor Muhammad Bazzi claimed in his article that Muqtada al-Sadr sought from the outset to combine political and religious authority, despite his “limited” religious qualifications and his apparent disregard for his years of study under the supervision of senior Shiite scholars, which entitles him to obtain the title of Ayatollah.

Despite this, Muqtada (the only surviving son of Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr who was assassinated in 1999) was able to follow in his father’s footsteps as a political leader of the Sadrist movement, according to the article.


Bazzi (American of Lebanese origin) – who also works as director of the Hagop Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies – touched on the early elections that took place in Iraq in October 2021, and resulted in the Sadrist movement winning 73 seats out of 329 in Parliament, despite that. Neither his bloc nor any other party succeeded in forming a government, which brought the country’s political system to a dead end, says the researcher and academic.

After months of failing to form a new government, al-Sadr announced on August 29 his retirement from political life.

However, the author of the article asserts that al-Sadr – despite this claim – is likely to exploit this new stage in his brinkmanship strategy and the street protests, to have the “upper hand over his opponents.”

Al-Sadr seeks – through similar statements that he has been making – to devote himself as an undisputed Shiite political decision-maker.

And to dominate the power-sharing system between the sects (the muhasasa), which remained in place after the United States overthrew the rule of the late President Saddam Hussein.

Shiite-Shiite conflict

Bazzi believes that the conflict in Iraq was not between rival sects or ethnic groups, but rather between Shiites “divided over their country’s relationship with Iran.”

The Sadrists – whose leader Muqtada al-Sadr was once a close ally of Tehran – argue that Baghdad should distance itself from all foreign powers, including Iran, while other factions remain more closely linked to Iraq’s powerful neighbor.

Although al-Sadr formulated his political game as a campaign against a corrupt political class that owes allegiance to Iran and other external powers, this adventure poses – according to the Foreign Affairs article – another danger to the “fragile” Iraqi state, represented in the possibility of taking over Baghdad by a “Shiite cleric.” He was leading one of Iraq’s most feared militias,” not Iranian-backed political factions.

A political vacuum in the Shiite sect

Al-Sadr embodies a “nationalist and rebellious model” of Shi’ism in Iraq, according to Bazzi’s description, who goes on to say that the Iraqi religious authority, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and other Shiite religious scholars avoid direct political participation, which has created a power vacuum within this sect, a vacuum that has remained The chest has been working for two decades to fill it.

Al-Sadr is more skilled than America in Iraq

However, the writer sees him as a leader who built a massive social and political movement capable of mobilizing the votes of the electorate, and taking advantage of the patronage system in Iraq.

Over the past years, he has also demonstrated greater political skill than the United States, and his Iraqi opponents have credited him for this, and he has always outdone them.

Russia Nukes Up the Iranian Horn

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani inspecting the country's nuclear technology

Putin to supply Iran with nuclear weapon parts in exchange for killer drones

Iran is to receive parts parts for nuclear weapons in exchange for killer drones capable of carrying out Kamikaze attacks on targets, the UK’s Defence Secretary has confirmed

Chris Hughes Defence and Security Editor

  • 15:03, 20 Dec 2022
  • UPDATED16:43, 20 Dec 2022

Kremlin chiefs will supply Iran with components capable of making deadly nuclear weapons, Britain has confirmed.

Russia will help Tehran in exchange for hundreds of Kamikaze drones currently being fired at Ukrainian targets.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace Russian intends to “provide Iran with advanced military components” in exchange for “kamikaze drones.”

The Iran nuke fears re-emerged as Belarus despot Alexander Lukashenko admitted he and Vladimir Putin are the “most toxic people on this planet.”

The pair met amid fears Russia wants to relaunch an attack on Kyiv via Belarus

Last week the Daily Mirror was first to highlight alarm over Russia wanting to help Iran develop its nuclear programme in exchange for weapons.

This followed claims by former FBI terror expert Ali Soufan that Russia may enable Tehran’s secretive nuclear programme.

In a statement on Ukraine Wallace told the Commons: “We must stop their reckless shelling of nuclear facilities. We must hold their enablers to account

“Iran has become one of Russia top military backers.

“In return for having supplied more than 300 kamikaze drones, Russia now intends to provide Iran with advanced military components, undermining both Middle East and international security.

The pair have agreed to exchange deadly technologies

The pair have agreed to exchange deadly technologies ( 

Image: SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)

“We must expose that deal. In fact I have just now.”

In our exclusive we revealed how both pariah countries are under massive sanctions and struggle to raise currency to buy weapons and components.

It is believed they have struck secret deals – Shahel-136 missiles for nuke components, putting Iran’s old enemy Israel under threat.

Soufan had written: “Both countries are subject to sweeping US and European sanctions and the extent to which Russia is able to provide Iran with hard currency payments for the drone production agreement is unclear.

In 2015 Iran agreed not to forward its nuke programme for 15 years in exchange for a relaxing of crippling sanctions

In 2015 Iran agreed not to forward its nuke programme for 15 years in exchange for a relaxing of crippling sanctions ( 

Image: AFP via Getty Images)

“As an alternative Iranian leaders may seek additional Russian assistance to boost their nuclear programme.

“Maintaining Russia as a partner may also help in circumventing sanctions that hinder Iran’s ability to acquire components and other goods for its advanced weapons programmes.”

Under a 2015 deal called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Iran agreed not to forward its nuke programme for 15 years in exchange for a relaxing of crippling sanctions.

One of the deadly drones used to attack Ukraine by Russia

One of the deadly drones used to attack Ukraine by Russia ( 


  1. Vladimir Putin unveils world’s biggest supersonic bomber in new nuclear warning
  2. Joe Biden promises £1.5billion for Ukraine defence including key Patriot missile system
  3. Ukraine prepares to fight off Russian troops as ‘Putin plots fresh assault on Kyiv’
  4. Joe Biden meets Volodymyr Zelensky for landmark talks after huge defence announcement

But three years later then President Trump pulled out of the deal, signed by Britain, Russia, Germany, the US and France.

On Tuesday Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the embattled city of Bakhmut, the recent focus of some of the most intense fighting of Russia’s war.

The eastern city is the scene of “fierce battles” between Ukraine’s defenders and Russia’s invading forces.

Part of a drone surrounded by rubble in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv

Part of a drone surrounded by rubble in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv ( 

Image: Anatolii Siryk/Ukrinform/NurPhoto/REX/Shutterstock)

Earlier this month, Mr Zelensky said Russia’s efforts to conquer Bakhmut had turned the eastern Ukrainian city into ruins.

He said: “The occupiers actually destroyed Bakhmut, another Donbas city that the Russian army turned into burnt ruins.”

And there are growing fears Russia intends to reignite its bid to launch a ground attack on Kyiv, via Belarus.

Lukashenko said of him and Putin: “You know, the two of us are co-aggressors. The most harmful [and] toxic people on this planet.

Pakistani Horn Is A Real Nuclear Weapons Threat: Daniel 8

Pakistan Nuclear Weapons

Pakistan Is A Real Nuclear Weapons Threat

ByHarrison Kass

Image: Creative Commons.

Before North Korea developed its functional nuclear arsenal, before Iran had achieved threshold capacity, another nation dominated the international community’s nuclear-related fears: Pakistan.

In 1971, Pakistan suffered a crushing defeat in the Bangladesh Liberation War; Pakistan lost a huge portion of their territory, the 56,000 square mile East Pakistan – which today is known as Bangladesh; and Pakistan lost half of its population. The war, and the resulting loss of population and territory inspired existential fears in the Pakistani government – and a radical policy change.

Before the loss of East Pakistan, Pakistan did not have nuclear ambitions. In 1953, Pakistani Foreign minister Muhammad Zafarullah Khan stated “Pakistan does not have a policy towards the atom bombs.” In 1955, Pakistan and the US reached an understanding that Pakistan’s nuclear program would be for peaceful and industrial purposes. Pakistan also participated in US President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s Atoms for Peace program. In all, Pakistan adhered to a strict non-nuclear weapons policy through the 50s and 60s. But now, having lost so much territory, Pakistan adjusted their nuclear policy, resolving themselves to build The Bomb.

In 1972, Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto called a now famous meeting, the “Multan meeting,” in which Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions were verbalized. Bhutto wanted his nation’s atomic scientists to build a nuclear weapon within three years. “What Raziuddin Siddiqui, a Pakistani, contributed for the United States during the Manhattan Project, could also be done by scientists in Pakistan, for their own people,” Bhutto said during the Multan meeting.

Pakistan was further incentivized to produce nuclear weapons in 1974, when Pakistan’s chief rival India tested the “Smiling Buddha” nuclear weapon. Still, the work was painstaking; Pakistan wouldn’t even be able to create weapons-grade uranium until 1985. Observers suspect that by 1986, Pakistan had produced enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon – and that by 1987, Pakistan had the ability to conduct a nuclear explosion. However, a confirmed test would not happen for another full decade.

According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS): “On May 28, 1998 Pakistan announced that it had successfully conducted five nuclear tests. The Pakistani Atomic Energy Commission reported that the five nuclear tests conducted on May 28 generated a seismic signal of 5.0 on the Richter scale, with a total yield of up to 40 KT (equivalent TNT). Dr. A.Q. Khan claimed that one device was a boosted fission device and that the other four were sub-kiloton nuclear devices.”

The announcement, which confirmed that both India and Pakistan were nuclear powers, put the world on edge. Kashmir, which both India and Pakistan claimed as their own, suddenly became a territorial dispute with global ramifications. Two days later, Pakistan tested another weapon. According to FAS: “On May 30, 1998, Pakistan tested one more nuclear warhead with a reported yield of 12 kilotons. The tests were conducted at Balochistan, bringing the total number of claimed tests to six.”

Today, Pakistan is one of just nine nations with nuclear weapons. The Pakistani nuclear program relies primarily on highly enriched uranium (HEU). Estimates hold that by the early 1990s, Pakistan was operating 3,000 centrifuges capable of creating HEU. The Pakistanis have diversified, however. In the 1990s, Pakistan – with help from their Chinese allies – began building a 40 MWt (megawatt thermal) research reactor. The reactor became operational in 1998, allowing Pakistan to produce roughly 8-10 kilotons (enough for one to two nuclear weapons) per year.

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) suspects that Pakistan has assembled 24-48 HEU-based nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) suspects that Pakistan has produced 585-800 kilograms of HEU – which is enough for 30-55 additional weapons. Pakistan’s warheads require an estimated 15-20 kilograms of HEU. Pakistan also likely has 3-5 plutonium-based nuclear weapons. However, Pakistan claims that its nuclear weapons are not assembled.

“Pakistani authorities claim that their nuclear weapons are not assembled. They maintain that the fissile cores are stored separately from the non-nuclear explosives packages, and that the warheads are stored separately from the delivery system,” FAS wrote. “In a 2001 report, the Defense Department contends that “Islamabad’s nuclear weapons are probably stored in component form” and that “Pakistan probably could assemble the weapons fairly quickly.” However, no one has been able to ascertain the validity of Pakistan’s assurances about their nuclear weapons security.”

Pakistan has signed neither the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) nor the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). India has not signed the CTBT nor NPT, either. Most observers believe that Pakistan’s primary motive for maintaining a nuclear arsenal is to counter India’s own nuclear arsenal, which makes sense from Pakistan’s perspective – although it makes the rest of the international community quite uncomfortable. Especially considering that Pakistan does not honor a “no-first-use” doctrine.

Pakistan has been very secretive about their nuclear program – even building secret launch sites. In 2008, the US admitted that it did not know where all of Pakistan’s nuclear sites were located – and that the US may have underestimated Pakistan’s nuclear abilities. “Don’t assume that the Pakistani’s nuclear capability is inferior to the Indians,” US General Anthony Zinni told NBC.


Image: Creative Commons.

Pakistan Helping Taliban

Image: Creative Commons.

Harrison Kass is the Senior Defense Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. He lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken. Follow him on Twitter @harrison_kass.