The Prophecy is much more than seeing into the future. For the Prophecy sees without the element of time. For the Prophecy sees what is, what was, and what always shall be. 11:11 LLC
China is one step closer to turning the South China Sea into a sanctuary for its nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), a move that would put the continental United States within range of its JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from the semi-enclosed and hotly contested body of water.
On November 18, US Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo acknowledged to military reporters in Washington that China has fielded its JL-3 SLBM on its six Type 094 SSBNs, giving it the capability to hit the US from waters closer to America’s shore.
Paparo emphasized that these SSBNs were built to threaten the US and that the US Navy is keeping close track of them.
A year ago, the Pentagon said that the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) would gain the capability to target the US from China’s coastal waters, with Paparo declining to comment when asked if China’s Type 094 SSBNs have conducted deterrence patrols close to Hawaii.
The JL-3 has an estimated range of more than 10,000 kilometers, which allows China to target the US “from a protected bastion in the South China Sea,” US Strategic Command commander Admiral Charles Richard told the US Senate Armed Services Committee this March according to a US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report.
If true, the JL-3 is a significant improvement over the previous missile, the JL-2, which has a range of 7,200 kilometers. According to CRS, that gives China’s Type 094 SSBNs the ability to attack Alaska from the Bohai Sea. CRS notes that to strike the US West Coast, JL-2-equipped Type 094 SSBNs would have to be in waters east of Hawaii due to range limitations.China’s JL-2’s on display. Image: Twitter
In response to the reports, China’s state mouthpiece Global Times last week slammed the US as having ulterior motives by hyping the “China Threat” to seek a greater presence in the Asia-Pacific in the form of more anti-submarine forces and its own Columbia-class SSBNs. It also claimed that spiking threat perceptions of China was a way for the US military to get more funding.
Global Times noted that China has yet to announce the commissioning of the JL-3. Although China carried out a JL-3 test launch in June 2019, the scheduled tests were standard and not aimed at any country or target, the Global Times report said.
It emphasized that China maintains a defensive national defense policy and a military strategy of “active defense.” The Global Times report also noted that while China has no plans to expand significantly its nuclear arsenal, it will continue to modernize it amid the changing strategic security environment.
China’s nuclear doctrine relies on a robust SSBN fleet. In a 2016 Carnegie Endowment for Regional Peace report, Liping Xia notes that a no-first-use policy, minimum nuclear deterrence, counter-nuclear coercion and limited nuclear deterrence are critical features of China’s nuclear doctrine.
Xia notes that China’s SSBNs are essential to its second-strike nuclear capability and with fleet upgrades allow China to be more confident of its no-first-use policy.
Echoing this view, Fiona Cunningham notes in a 2020 article for The Strategist that China’s nuclear force structure is optimized to ride out an adversary’s first strike and retaliate against strategic targets rather than credibly threaten the first use of nuclear weapons.
Cunningham mentions that although Chinese leaders have debated changing China’s longstanding no-first-use nuclear policy from time to time, there is no sign that China plans to change it anytime soon.
The JL-3’s deployment will mark a significant upgrade to the survivability of China’s undersea deterrent. A 2018 Carnegie Endowment for Regional Peace report notes that the JL-2 SLBM’s limited range means it cannot reach the US if launched from Chinese coastal waters. The report says that China’s SSBNs would need to sail into the Western Pacific to hit the US mainland with the missile.
A 2015 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report notes that the US and its allies could exploit chokepoints including the Miyako Strait, Bashi Channel and the Sulu Sea to track China’s SSBNs on their way to the Pacific Ocean.
These vulnerabilities go against the basic philosophy of an SSBN, which according to the CSIS report is to hide in the ocean’s vastness so that it would be impossible to detect or predict its location.China’s Type 094A nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. Photo: Twitter / The National Interest
As such, the JL-3’s introduction may allow China to implement a South China Sea “bastion strategy,” obviating the need for its SSBNs to sail into the Pacific to launch their SLBMs. In this strategy, China would use the South China Sea as a sanctuary for its SSBNs, with the area protected by land-based aircraft and missiles, naval forces and fortified islands.
The South China Sea’s semi-enclosed configuration and proximity to China’s shores make it an ideal area to implement the strategy, with China’s large submarine base in Hainan showing that it is moving in that direction with its SSBN fleet.
Logistically speaking, it would be much easier for China to sustain short-range SSBN than open-water patrols with command and control facilities stationed in nearby waters.
As the South China Sea is straddled by major sea lanes of communication (SLOCs), the underwater noise environment makes it more difficult to detect China’s SSBNs, allowing them to hide amid the area’s unique underwater noise, thermal and acoustic features.
Iranian missiles and drones struck an Iranian Kurdish opposition group’s bases in northern Iraq late Sunday night, the faction said.
The Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, a Kurdish Iranian group exiled in Iraq, said in a statement that Iranian surface-to-surface missiles and drones hit its bases and adjacent refugee camps in Koya and Jejnikan. The group also asserted that the strikes had hit a hospital in Koya.
Some Kurdish groups have been engaged in a low-intensity conflict with Tehran since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution, with many members seeking political exile in neighboring Iraq where they have established bases.
Iran alleges that these groups are inciting anti-government protests in Iran and smuggling weapons into the country, which Kurdish groups have denied.
Tehran has periodically launched airstrikes against the Kurdish groups’ bases in Iraq. During a visit to Baghdad last week, Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani threatened Iraq with a ground military operation in the country’s north if the Iraqi army does not fortify the countries’ shared border against Kurdish opposition groups, Iraqi and Kurdish officials said.
The U.S. condemned the latest Iranian strikes. Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, who heads U.S. Central Command, said in a statement: “Such indiscriminate and illegal attacks place civilians at risk, violate Iraqi sovereignty, and jeopardize the hard-fought security and stability of Iraq and the Middle East.”
Hamas spokesperson Abdul Latif al-Qanoua said that the colonial Israeli settlers’ attacks against the Palestinian citizens of the occupied West Bank city of Hebron, the desecration of the Al-Ibrahimi Mosque, and the attempts to Judaise the city will be resisted with all possible means.
He called on the Palestinian people in the occupied West Bank to support the citizens of Hebron in their struggle to defend their city and their lands against the occupation forces and colonial settlers’ attacks.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says the anti-Iran IAEA resolution has political goals and is an attempt to increase pressure on Iran.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said Iran took on Sunday several measures in the Natanz and Fordow uranium enrichment facilities in response to the anti-Iran resolution passed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors, which was submitted by the US and the three European countries, the UK, France, and Germany.Z
Kanaani considered that the IAEA resolution has political goals and is an attempt to increase pressure on Iran by the United States and the three European countries.
The Iranian Spokesperson highlighted that the resolution comes despite Iran having a peaceful nuclear program that is the most transparent in the world, noting that his country has preceded and warned the Western parties of the consequences of this illogical and destructive act.
Kanaani said the use of international organizations as a tool against independent countries has become the norm in the foreign policy of Western countries, stressing that Iran will not succumb to pressure and will continue its peaceful nuclear program in accordance with its needs, rights, and obligations under international treaties.
Earlier in the day, AEOI head Mohammad Eslami condemned the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors’ “unconstructive” decision to pass a resolution against Iran, warning it will elicit a strong response from Tehran.
The IAEA passed a resolution last Thursday urging Iran to comply with the probe involving the alleged find of uranium traces at three undeclared sites.
This is the second time that the nuclear watchdog is carrying out a motion of this kind against Iran – the last one which took place in June this year involved a motion of censure against Tehran’s alleged obstruction of inspectors.
The resolution, which states it is “essential and urgent” for Iran to “act to fulfill its legal obligations” and was brought by the US, the UK, France, and Germany, was voted by 26 countries in favor, two against, five abstained, and two countries were absent.
Powerful explosions shook the area of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), “abruptly ending a period of relative calm” at the facility, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog agency said on Sunday.
“As I have said many times before, you’re playing with fire!”.
Tweet URL
Powerful explosions shook area of #Zaporizhzhya NPP last night & today. IAEA experts at #ZNPP report a dozen+ blasts from apparent shelling & some site buildings, systems & equipment damaged, but none so far critical for nuclear safety & security. https://t.co/0nEY45BLAg https://t.co/FgG6erL0IV
IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️
iaeaorg
November 20, 2022
Renewed shelling
In what appeared to be renewed shelling near and at the site of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, IAEA experts on the ground reported that more than a dozen blasts were heard within a short period of time in the morning local time.
The IAEA team were also able to see some of the explosions from their windows.
“The news from our team yesterday and this morning is extremely disturbing”, said Mr. Grossi.
Citing information provided by plant management, the IAEA team said there had been damage to some buildings, systems, and equipment at the site, but noncritical for nuclear safety and security.
“Explosions occurred at the site of this major nuclear power plant, which is completely unacceptable”, he added. “Whoever is behind this, it must stop immediately”.
According to news reports, Russian and Ukrainian nuclear energy authorities each blamed the other side’s forces for the strikes – triggering fears of a serious nuclear accident. So far, there have been no reports of any radiation leaks at the Russian-occupied plant.
Nuclear-free zone
The IAEA experts said that there were no reported casualties, and they are in close contact with site management.
Meanwhile as they continue to assess and relay updates on the situation, the IAEA chief renewed his urgent appeal that both sides of the conflict agree to implement a nuclear safety and security zone around the ZNPP as soon as possible.
In recent months, he has been engaging in intense consultations with Ukraine and Russia on establishing a zone – but, so far, no agreement has been reached.
Even though there was no direct impact on key nuclear safety and security systems at the plant, the senior UN official said, “the shelling came dangerously close to them”.
“We are talking metres, not kilometres. Whoever is shelling at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, is taking huge risks and gambling with many people’s lives”.
The IAEA team of experts plan to conduct an assessment of the shelling impact on the site tomorrow.
The Prophecy Blog 