Day: November 11, 2016

World War 3 With Russia Averted

By TOM BATCHELOR
00:00, Thu, Nov 10, 2016 | UPDATED: 16:00, Thu, Nov 10, 2016
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin
But a former British foreign secretary has warned Mr Trump against cosying up to the Russian strongman, saying the Kremlin was “unafraid to use aggression and intervention to shore up its influence”.
Speaking after a stunning upset that has shaken the US political establishment to its core, Mr Putin’s right-hand-man said Americans had faced two choices on the ballot paper: “World War Three or multilateral peace.“
Presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev added: “Clinton was a symbol of war, and Trump has a chance to change this course.”
The Kremlin was known to favour a Republican victory on Tuesday and Mr Trump has expressed a willingness to forge closer ties with Moscow.
Fellow aide to Mr Putin, Vyacheslav Volodin, said Russia was looking forward to the end of President Barack Obama’s tenure.
He said the election result would bring to an end the “problems [President Obama] caused between the Kremlin and Washington“.
After the result was announced on Wednesday morning, Mr Putin sent a telegram to the president-elect expressing “hope toward joint work to lift Russian-US relations from the state of crisis, as well as to address the pressing issues of the international agenda and the search for effective responses to global security challenges“.
He said in a speech later that rebuilding relations “will not be an easy path considering the unfortunate degradation of relations.
“But Russia is ready and wants to restore full-fledged relations with the US.”
Mr Trump’s call for the US to reduce its funding for an “obsolete” NATO could also be a major boost for Moscow, allowing Russia to increase its intimidation of eastern European states.
A stronger Russia threatens to destabilise Europe, providing the catalyst for fresh conflict which has the potential – if still remote – to escalate into a third world war.
Former British foreign secretary William Hague warned today that the incoming Republican candidate must keep the man in the Kremlin at arm’s length.
Lord Hague, who led the Tory party for four years, and served in the Cabinet under John Major and David Cameron, counselled Mr Trump to “be clear-eyed about Putin”.
Writing in the Telegraph, he said: “Clinton herself tried to ‘reset’ relations with Russia, but this is a power in long-term decline unafraid to use aggression and intervention to shore up its influence.
“Unless Washington shows strength and resolution, Moscow will use any thaw in relations to its own advantage.”

Sixth Seal Hazard: New York City (Rev 6:12)

EARTHQUAKE HAZARD

 (Source: US Geological Survey)
NY hazard
New York State Geological Survey
Damaging earthquakes have occurred in New York and surely will again. The likelihood of a damaging earthquake in New York is small overall but the possibility is higher in the northern part of the state and in the New York City region. Significant earthquakes, both located in Rockaway and larger than magnitude 5, shook New York City in 1737 and 1884. The quakes were 147 years apart and the most recent was 122 year ago. It is likely that another earthquake of the same size will occur in that area in the next 25 to 50 years. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake in New York City would probably not cause great loss of life. However the damage to infrastructure – buildings, steam and gas lines, water mains, electric and fiber optic cable – could be extensive.
Earthquake Hazard Map of New York State
Acceleration of the ground during an earthquake is more important than total movement in causing structural damage. This map shows the two-percent probability of the occurrence of an earthquake that exceeds the acceleration of earth’s gravity by a certain percentage in the next fifty years.
If a person stands on a rug and the rug pulled slowly, the person will maintain balance and will not fall. But if the rug is jerked quickly, the person will topple. The same principle is true for building damage during an earthquake. Structural damage is caused more by the acceleration of the ground than by the distance the ground moves.
Earthquake hazard maps show the probability that the ground will move at a certain rate, measured as a percentage of earth’s gravity, during a particular time. Motion of one or two percent of gravity will rattle windows, doors, and dishes. Acceleration of ten to twenty percent of gravity will cause structural damage to buildings. It takes more than one hundred percent of gravity to throw objects into the air.

Isolating The Iranian Nuclear Horn (Daniel 8)

Oren Dorell | USA TODAY4 hours ago
In September 2015, Trump said he would “renegotiate” the agreement, reached two months earlier, which curtailed Iran’s nuclear program to peaceful activities in return for the lifting of crippling sanctions over time. Last month, Trump said Iran “should write us a letter of thank you” for “the stupidest deal of all time.” Vice President-elect Mike Pence said the deal would be “ripped up” after consultation with U.S. allies.
So, could Trump shred it if he wants to?
Yes, State Department spokesman Mark Toner confirms. “The agreement is valid only as long as all parties uphold it,” he said Wednesday.
The threats from Trump and his team were enough to prompt Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif to issue statements about the future of the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. It cannot be changed by one government’s decision, Rouhani insisted Wednesday.
“Iran exercised prudence concerning the nuclear agreement as it confirmed JCPOA as a U.N. Security Council Resolution, not as an agreement with one government,” he said, according to the government controlled Iranian Students News Agency.
The nuclear deal was reached between the USA, Russia, Britain, France and China — the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council — plus Germany. All approved it.
Zarif urged the new American president-elect to face the reality of regional and international affairs.
The reality is that Iran was brought to the bargaining table with the help of crippling sanctions imposed by the U.S, the U.N. Security Council and the European Union at the urging of the Obama administration and Congress. And Russia, China and the United States’ allies in Europe have already started doing business with oil-rich Iran since the deal was inked, and they hope for more.
European countries have lifted sanctions. Iran has made deals to expand its oil fields, build cars, and buy dozens of aircraft from the EU’s Airbus and the U.S.’ s Boeing Corp. Russia is deploying anti-aircraft systems to Iran. The U.S. released its hold on tens of billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenues that had been frozen in foreign bank accounts. Iran’s once depressed economy is enjoying a moderate recovery.
Iran has also expanded its policy of supporting Shiite militias in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. In Iraq thee militias are battling the Islamic State, a Sunni group that both Shiite-dominated Iran and the U.S. consider an enemy. But in Syria, the militias are mostly fighting U.S.-backed anti-government rebels, and in Yemen, they’re fighting the U.S.- and Saudi-backed government. Pulling out of the deal could risk exacerbating these conflicts or lifting the constraints on Iran’s nuclear program at a time when it is expanding its economy and military activities abroad.
Toner said State Department officials will explain the merits of the deal to Trump’s transition team, though any decision about sticking to the terms of the agreement would be up to the next administration.
Secretary of State John Kerry and the Obama administration “feel very strongly the Iran deal has worked,” Toner said. “It prevented Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon in a short period of time.”
It also provided for increased and more intrusive monitoring by the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, he said. And the agreement required the approval of lawmakers from every country that signed it, including the GOP-controlled U.S. Congress and the Iranian parliament.
“This deal does what it says it would do, which is prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” Toner said.
Trump announced he would not honor the agreement, “all U.S. sanctions that have been lifted or suspended are going to be re-imposed, by executive order,” said Mark Dubowitz, a critic of the deal who is executive director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
More likely, Trump won’t rip up the agreement, but signal he’s going to aggressively enforce it, and “not tolerate any Iranian cheating or challenging of the deal,” Dubowitz said.

The History Of New York Earthquakes: Before The Sixth Seal (Rev 6:12)

Historic Earthquakes
Near New York City, New York
1884 08 10 19:07 UTC
Magnitude 5.5
Intensity VII
New York historic earthquakes
USGS.gov
This severe earthquake affected an area roughly extending along the Atlantic Coast from southern Maine to central Virginia and westward to Cleveland, Ohio. Chimneys were knocked down and walls were cracked in several States, including Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. Many towns from Hartford, Connecticut, to West Chester,Pennsylvania.
Property damage was severe at Amityville and Jamaica, New York, where several chimneys were “overturned” and large cracks formed in walls. Two chimneys were thrown down and bricks were shaken from other chimneys at Stratford (Fairfield County), Conn.; water in the Housatonic River was agitated violently. At Bloomfield, N.J., and Chester, Pa., several chimneys were downed and crockery was broken. Chimneys also were damaged at Mount Vernon, N.Y., and Allentown, Easton, and Philadelphia, Pa. Three shocks occurred, the second of which was most violent. This earthquake also was reported felt in Vermont, Virginia, and Washington, D.C. Several slight aftershocks were reported on August 11.

The Collapsing Iran Deal? (Ezekiel 17)

Iran nuclear deal could collapse under Trump
By Carol Morello National SecurityNovember 9 at 3:16 PM
Some characterized Trump’s election as a death knell for the deal, which was reached in 2014 and put into effect in January. It imposes limits on Iran’s nuclear program and its ability to build atomic weapons for at least 10 years in exchange for lifting most international sanctions.
“I think it’s basically the end game for the deal,” said Richard Nephew, a Columbia University fellow who was the lead sanctions expert on the U.S. negotiating team.
“It’s very hard for me to see, based on the rhetoric, letting it stand as is, or not doing something that forces the Iranians to walk away.”
Though it has been applauded by allies that negotiated alongside the United States — Britain, France, Germany, China, Russia and the European Union — the agreement has been heavily criticized in Congress. Republican lawmakers in particular say it has rewarded Iran for taking U.S. citizens prisoner and enabled the country’s aggression in regional conflicts in Syria and Yemen.
“My number one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran,” Trump said in a speech to the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC during the campaign. He later said he would try to renegotiate the agreement and increase U.S. sanctions against Iran.
Iran is concerned enough about what Trump may do that senior officials on Wednesday urged a Trump administration to live up to commitments made by the United States.
“Iran’s understanding of the nuclear deal was that the accord was not concluded with one country or government but was approved by a resolution of the U.N. Security Council, and there is no possibility that it can be changed by a single government,” he said on Iran state television Wednesday.
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who negotiated the agreement on behalf of Iran, said the United States must stick to the agreed-upon details.
“Every U.S. president has to understand the realities of today’s world,” he said Wednesday, as reported by the Tehran Times. “The most important thing is that the future U.S. president sticks to agreements, to engagements undertaken.”
Uncertainty in Tehran is not necessarily a bad thing, said Mark Dubowitz, head of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who has testified frequently in Congress opposing the deal.
Dubowitz added: “There’s always the risk the United States ends up isolated, as the Europeans, Chinese and Russians scramble to cut side deals with the Iranians. But one should never underestimate the power of U.S. secondary sanctions and the fear that creates in the marketplace — a fear that has now been intensified as a result of a President Trump.”
Trump’s statements have at times been contradictory, adding a further element of confusion into the predictions. But he will probably not act solely on his own instincts.
“He will be able to call upon a considerable body of effort on the part if all those mobilized trying to block the deal last year, aimed at looking for ways to undermine its provisions, to toughen the measures put in place and to force our negotiating partners to go along with a much harsher stance,” said Suzanne Maloney, deputy director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution.
“To my mind, that’s highly unrealistic,” she added. “This isn’t the sole issue a Trump administration is going to be at odds with our primary diplomatic partners over. It will already be a fraught relationship.”
The path forward should become clearer once Trump names his foreign policy team.
“To what extent will the Never Trump faction, which was wide in the policy community, begin to walk back on its absolutism in refusing to serve in his administration?” Maloney said. “I suspect some will.”